互联网与公共参与——基于工具变量的因果推论  

Internet Surfing and Political Participation: A Causal Inference with Instrumental Variables

作　　者：刘学[1] 耿曙[2] 

机构地区：[1]台湾政治大学 [2]浙江大学公共管理学院社会学系

出　　处：《社会发展研究》2016年第3期1-26,共26页Journal of Social Development

摘　　要：本文使用北京大学中国国情研究中心"公民文化与和谐社会"的调查数据,从"反事实因果模型"角度,运用工具变量析离出干扰变量的影响后,系统考察"中国城镇居民的日常互联网使用"对其"群体性请愿、示威、游行等非制度化公共参与"和"参加政治会议、向领导表达观点、投票等制度化公共参与行为"的影响。研究出人意料的发现,日常互联网使用并不会必然促进"非制度化参与",与此同时,互联网使用对"制度化参与"反而呈现抑制的倾向。也就是说,常上互联网可能会消解公民对政治制度参与的冲动,不但不会激起抗议抗争,反而很可能沦落为对政治的冷感。^(1)Is it true that the more you surf internet,the more politically active you would become?There are pros and cons of this topic. For some,it is the concerns and participation that trigger internet surfing but not vice versa. The focus of the debate thus shifts to the endogeneity problem,in which causes and effects are intertwined and difficult to measure separately. Given the proposition,this study uses the survey data collected by the Research Center for Contemporary China of the Peking University,and examines the relations between 'daily internet use'and 'institutionalized( e. g.,casting votes)and un-institutionalized political participation( e. g.,social protests) 'with an instrumental variable by following the rationale of counterfactual reasoning. The findings are shocking,indicating that internet use may bring down both institutionalized and un-institutionalized participation by substituting the urge of un-institutionalized participation and dulling the sense of civic responsibility necessary for institutionalized participation. In other words,political apathy,instead of overly politicization,could more likely be the consequence of surfing all-day on the internet.

关 键 词：互联网使用 因果推论 公共参与 制度参与 非制度化参与 

分 类 号：D621.5[政治法律—政治学]