乌鲁木齐河流域积雪面积变化及其对径流的影响  

Snow-covered Area Change and Impact on Runoff in Urumqi River Basin

作　　者：吕姣姣 雷晓云[1] 魏宾[2] 任泉[3] 邢坤[1] 

机构地区：[1]新疆农业大学水利与土木工程学院,新疆乌鲁木齐830052 [2]新疆生产建设兵团勘测设计院,新疆乌鲁木齐830002 [3]乌鲁木齐市气象局,新疆乌鲁木齐830002

出　　处：《水文》2016年第4期26-30,共5页Journal of China Hydrology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目:天山中段玛纳斯河流域融雪机理及其径流过程模拟的研究(U1178301);自治区产学研联合培养研究生示范基地项目(xjaucxy-yjs-20141040);新疆水利水电工程重点学科基金项目(XJzdxk-2010-02-12)

摘　　要：积雪面积是干旱区分布式水文模型的重要输入因子,为了研究其与径流间的关系,基于MODIS数据提取乌鲁木齐河流域英雄桥站以上积雪面积,分析了流域近年来积雪面积变化特征,采用偏相关分析法阐明了降水和气温变化对积雪面积的影响,并利用多元逐步回归与通径分析研究了径流同积雪面积、降水、气温间的关系。结果表明:(1)流域积雪面积12月份达到最大,7月份达到最小,多年积雪面积变化呈不明显下降趋势;(2)气温对积雪面积的变化较降水更加敏感;(3)流域内各因素间的相互影响促进了径流的产生。The snow-covered area is an important factor of the distributed hydrological model for arid area. In order to study the relationship between snow-covered area and runoff, this paper used the snow-covered area above the Yingxiongqiao station based on MODIS data. The characteristics of the snow-covered area in recent years were analyzed. The effect of precipitation and tem- perature variation on the snow-covered area was analyzed by using partial correlation analysis. The relationship between runoff and snow-covered, precipitation and temperature was studied by using multiple stepwise regression and path analysis. The results show that （1） the biggest and smallest snow-covered area appear in December and July; （2） the temperature is more sensitive to the change of snow-covered area; （3） the interaction between the various factors in the river basin promote the generation of runoff.

关 键 词：积雪面积 MODIS 偏相关分析 通径分析 

分 类 号：TV121[水利工程—水文学及水资源]