弹性系数法在城际高铁建设可行性中的应用  

Application of Elastic Coefficient Method in the Construction of Intercity High-speed Railway

作　　者：吴江[1] 贾元华[1] 

机构地区：[1]北京交通大学交通运输学院,北京100044

出　　处：《交通运输系统工程与信息》2016年第4期60-66,共7页Journal of Transportation Systems Engineering and Information Technology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(U0970116)~~

摘　　要：高速铁路为人们提供了一种高效的运输方式.本文借鉴弹性系数法的相关理论,首先运用广义费用函数测算样本中高铁开通前后两地区综合客运成本的变化,结合两地区高铁开通前后客运量的变化得到了运输成本弹性系数,用于衡量两地区对于高铁开通的迫切性程度,从而在另一个层面衡量高铁建设的可行性.然后根据运输经济学及新经济地理学的相关理论,从人口、距离、人均GDP差异、平均人均GDP和产业结构相似度5个维度对样本的运输成本弹性系数进行建模,运用神经网络的方法来拟合其对运输成本弹性系数的影响情况,并以此为依据来测算北京市和张家口市对即将开通的京张高铁的迫切性程度.The high- speed railway provides an efficient means of transportation to people. Firstly, the generalized cost function is used to measure the change of the comprehensive passenger transportation cost which is caused by the high-speed railway operation in two regions. Combined it with the change of passenger traffic volume in the two regions, the transportation cost demand elasticity is obtained for measuring the urgency of the two areas for the opening of high-speed railway, so as to measure the feasibility of high- speed railway construction in another level. Subsequently, according to the theory of transportation economics and new economic geography, the transportation cost demand elasticity is modeled from five dimensions which are population, distance, differences in per capita GDP, average per capita GDP and industrial structure similarity. Neural network is used to fit the influence mechanism from these five variables, and thus as the basis to measure Beijing and Zhangjiakou City for urgent degree to the upcoming opening of the Beijing-Zhangjiakou high-speed railway.

关 键 词：交通运输经济 可行性研究 弹性系数法 高铁建设 神经网络 

分 类 号：U125[交通运输工程]