多方式竞争下城市公交需求价格弹性实证分析  

Empirical Analysis of Demand-price Elasticity for Urban Public Transit in Multimodal Transport System

作　　者：陈伯阳[1] 蒋明清[1] 四兵锋[1] 杨小宝[1] 

机构地区：[1]北京交通大学交通运输学院,北京100044

出　　处：《交通运输系统工程与信息》2016年第4期241-247,共7页Journal of Transportation Systems Engineering and Information Technology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(71571013;71210001)~~

摘　　要：本文将交通平衡理论及方法应用在城市多方式交通需求建模上,考虑了不同方式之间的竞争关系,构造了满足用户平衡条件的多方式交通需求分配的数学优化模型,基于经济学的价格需求弹性的基本概念,采用灵敏度分析方法得出公交需求对公交票价的导数关系,进而得到城市公交价格需求弹性的计算模型.基于某城市的调查数据和公交实际运营数据,计算出了该市的公交价格需求弹性,以及与其他方式之间的交叉弹性值;分析了在不同条件下的公交需求,以及公交价格需求弹性的变化规律,得到了该市公交价格需求弹性指标,以及该指标随各种影响因素的变化规律.User equilibrium theory is used for modeling transportation demand in urban multimodal network. A mathematical optimization model is constructed to meet user equilibrium condition for such system while considering the competitive relationship between different modes. It is also proved that the optimal solution satisfies the logit based mode- split. Based on the economic concept of demand- price elasticity, the derivative of transport demands of different modes with public transit fares is found by using the sensitivity analysis, and then the demand- price elasticity of public transit is obtained. According to SP survey and operational data of certain city, the demand- price elasticity of public transit as well as the cross elasticities between different modes are all calculated. Simultaneously, the variations of the demand- price elasticity are analyzed under different conditions of demands and pricings.

关 键 词：城市交通 价格需求弹性 用户平衡 灵敏度分析 交叉弹性 

分 类 号：F570.7[经济管理—产业经济]