贝叶斯模型和时空扫描统计量在胃癌死亡空间分布特征中的应用  

Application of Bayesian model and Spatial-temporal scan statistic in mortality spatial distribution characteristics of gastric cancer

作　　者：廖伟斌 孙建国[1,2] 雍万铃 于国伟[3] 田德红[4] 王熙蓓 

机构地区：[1]兰州交通大学测绘与地理信息学院,甘肃兰州730070 [2]甘肃省地理国情监测工程实验室,甘肃兰州730070 [3]西北民族大学环境健康研究所,甘肃兰州730124 [4]兰州大学公共卫生学院营养与食品卫生学研究所,甘肃兰州730000

出　　处：《中华疾病控制杂志》2016年第8期847-850,共4页Chinese Journal of Disease Control & Prevention

基　　金：武威农业化肥环境氮污染与胃癌发病相关性研究(1308RJZA226)

摘　　要：目的采用贝叶斯模型、时空扫描统计量研究2012-2013年武威市凉州区胃癌死亡空间分布特征,纳入男性死亡百分比、河流分布因素,估计胃癌死亡相对危险度,为胃癌危险因素分析及聚集性研究提供依据。方法利用贝叶斯模型(Bayesian model,BYM)、时空扫描统计量分析方法,对武威市凉州区胃癌死亡数据进行分析。结果 2种贝叶斯模型结果均显示2012-2013年武威市凉州区胃癌死亡空间分布存在相对危险度(relative risk,RR)较高的区域,主要分布在凉州区的北部、中部及东南部。在两种贝叶斯模型的对比中,加入危险因素的BYM模型拟合程度优于单独的BYM模型,胃癌死亡时空聚集结果表明2012年该地区存在2个聚集区,且聚集区与胃癌RR值较高的区域分布相似。结论 2012-2013年武威市凉州区胃癌死亡存在高危险、聚集区,而胃癌高发区域可能与河流污染及其他环境危险因素有关,对胃癌死亡高发区的影响因素仍需进一步研究。Objective Based on the Bayesian model and the spatial-temporal scan statistic,to analysze the spatial distribution of gastric cancer from 2012- 2013 in Liangzhou District of Wuwei,taking the percent of male mortality and the distribution of the river into consideration to estimate the relative risk of gastric cancer mortality,and provide the basis for gastric cancer risk factors and spatial aggregation analysis. Methods Based on the morality data of gastric cancer in Liangzhou district of Wuwei during 2012- 2013,Bayesian model（ BYM） and spatial-temporal scan statistics analysis were carried out. Results The result of Bayesian models showed there exist high relative risk areas in Liangzhou District of Wuwei from 2012 to 2013,which were distributed in the northern,central and southeast of Liangzhou district. The model with risk factors was performed better than BYM,and the result of spatial-temporal scan statistic indicated that there were two clusters of gastric cancer mortality in 2012,besides,the area with high RR value and spatial temporal clusters were similar.Conclusions The gastric cancer morality in Liangzhou District of Wuwei exist high risk and aggregation areas,and the distribution of these regions may related to the river pollution and other environmental risk factors,the correlation between these factors and high risk areas needs further study.

关 键 词：胃癌 危险因素 流行病学研究 

分 类 号：R735.2[医药卫生—肿瘤]