中国新能源消费预测及对策研究  

China's new energy:Current status,consumption forecasting and countermeasures

作　　者：姜洪殿[1] 董康银 孙仁金[1] 宋显昱 

机构地区：[1]中国石油大学工商管理学院,北京102249 [2]中石油昆仑燃气有限公司华东分公司,上海201204

出　　处：《可再生能源》2016年第8期1196-1202,共7页Renewable Energy Resources

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目(13&ZD159);国家自然科学基金项目(71273277)

摘　　要：文章从消费总量和种类两个方面,对中国新能源(太阳能、风能、水能、核能、地热能和生物能)的开发应用现状进行了详尽梳理;结合GM(1,1)灰色模型和BP神经网络模型,构建了并联型灰色神经网络组合预测模型,并对中国新能源消费量进行了预测;从发展规模和增长速度两方面对不同种类新能源发展潜力进行排序。预测结果表明:到2020年我国一次能源消费总量将达3 503.1 Mt油当量,新能源消费总量为690.5 Mt油当量,占比为19.7%;中国未来将形成以风能和太阳能为核心,水能为重点的能源发展格局。文章还针对中国新能源可持续发展提出了对策和建议。This paper first presents the history information on Chinals new energy by total consumption and fuel types （solar,wind, hydropower, nuclear, geothermal and biomass）. Then, by combining the GM （1, 1） grey model with BP neural network model and establishing a combined Grey-BP modelling tool, the future consumption of China＇s new energy is forecasted. In addition, the ranking of the development potential for the different new energy fuel types is performed, from both the development scale and growth rate perspective. According to our estimation, Chinals total new energy consumption will increase from 363.9 Mt in 2015 to 690.5 Mt in 2020,accounting for 19.7% of the domestic energy need. Besides, according to the rank results, wind and solar energy will be considered as future oriented composition of the new energy, as well as hydropower considered as the key element in China. At last, some policy recommendations are proposed to promote the sustainable development of China＇s new energy from the government,region and enterprise perspective, respectively.

关 键 词：新能源 消费量 GM(1  1)灰色预测 BP神经网络 组合预测 

分 类 号：TK6[动力工程及工程热物理—生物能] TK5