基于贝叶斯网络的草原干旱雪灾灾害链推理模型研究  

Study on inference model of the grassland drought and snow disaster chain based on Bayesian networks

作　　者：哈斯[1] 张继权[1] 郭恩亮 乌日娜[1] 马齐云 王永芳[1] 

机构地区：[1]东北师范大学环境学院,自然灾害研究所,吉林长春130117

出　　处：《自然灾害学报》2016年第4期20-29,共10页Journal of Natural Disasters

基　　金：“十二五”国家科技支撑计划课题(2013BAK05B02,2013BAK05B01)~~

摘　　要：灾害的形成、发生与发展过程具有链式规律。灾害链已经成为灾害研究的热点问题之一。草原具有灾种多、灾情重的基本特点,极易遭受灾害链的影响,目前对于草原灾害的灾害链研究并不多见。通过统计内蒙古锡林郭勒地区草原灾害的历史资料,识别了草原干旱雪灾灾害链类型,并对其形成机理进行了研究;针对因果型草原干旱雪灾灾害链,以贝叶斯网络为建模工具,建立了贝叶斯网络,实现了对因果型草原干旱雪灾灾害链发生过程的推理分析。以实例说明了草原干旱雪灾灾害链贝叶斯网络的运作过程和应用效果。根据贝叶斯网络推理结果,通过GIS空间分析技术,绘制了锡盟草原干旱雪灾灾害链综合灾害等级区划图。研究结果能为深入了解草原干旱与草原雪灾的演化途径和草原灾害的防灾减灾工作提供参考。There is a chain rule in the process of the formation, occurrence and development of the disaster. So the disaster chain has become a hot topic of the disaster research. The basic characteristics of the grassland disaster are their variation and diversity. The grassland disaster can be highly vulnerable to the impact of disasters chain. But the research on the disaster chain of the grassland disasters is still rare at present. According to the statistical analysis of the historical disaster data in Xilinguole grassland in Inner Mongolia, and the recognition of different types of the grassland drought-snow disaster chain, this essay studieds its occurrence mechanism. Aiming at the causality- type grassland drought-snow disaster chain, the Bayesian network was established by taking the network as a model- ing tool to realize the inference analysis of the generating process of causahy-type grassland drought-snow disaster chain. The application effect and operating process of Bayesian network of grassland drought-snow disaster chain were illustrated with examples. According to the inference result of Bayesian network, the regionalization map of comprehensive disaster level of grassland drought snow disaster chain in Xilinguole was drew by the use of GIS spatial analysis. The research results may provide a reference for a deep understanding of the evolutionary path of grassland drought and snow disaster, and the disaster prevention and mitigation work of the grassland disasters.

关 键 词：草原干旱 草原雪灾 灾害链 贝叶斯网络 推理分析 

分 类 号：X43[环境科学与工程—灾害防治]