我国碳排放变化影响因素的时空分异与调控  

The Spatial-Temporal Differentiation of the Influence Factors of Carbon Emissions and the Regulation in China

作　　者：王喜[1] 张艳[2] 秦耀辰[1] 姜向亚[1] 

机构地区：[1]河南大学环境与规划学院,中国河南开封475004 [2]南阳师范学院环境科学与旅游学院,中国河南南阳473061

出　　处：《经济地理》2016年第8期158-165,共8页Economic Geography

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(41171438);教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地重大项目(10JJDZONGHE015)

摘　　要：基于LMDI模型,对我国1990—2010年不同尺度区域的碳排放增长的影响因素进行分解,研究表明,我国碳排放总量及人均碳排放持续增长,且空间差异明显,碳排放强度、产业结构、经济发展和人口增长是影响我国碳排放变化的主要因素,但各因素的作用方向和作用强度不尽相同。降低碳排放强度对抑制我国碳排放增长效果显著,经济发展是造成我国碳排放量较快增长的主要因素,由于我国正处于工业化快速发展阶段,产业结构调整对碳排放增长的影响较小,人口增长对碳排放增长也具有一定的促进作用。不同尺度区域的分解结果表明,不同研究时段、不同区域的经济发展水平、能源结构、产业结构各不相同,各影响因素的作用及贡献率也有较大差异。国家应该从宏观政策及发展战略角度,针对经济发展水平各异的不同区域,通过产业结构、技术、碳税及碳交易政策等多种途径,积极引导各级政府及企业发展低碳经济,减少碳排放。For a period, energy saving and emission reduction is the important target for economy and society in China. The influence factors of carbon emissions from 1990 to 2010 for different scaled areas are resolved based on LMDI model. Study indicated that total carbon emissions and per capita carbon emissions continue to increase and have great spatial difference. Decomposition result based on LMDI model showed that carbon emission intensity, industrial structure, economic development and population growth are the main influence factors of carbon emissions growth and that the action orientation and strength are different. The research also showed that lower carbon emission intensity has inhibiting effect for carbon emissions growth, economic development is the main factors of carbon emissions growth, industrial structural has less impacts for carbon emissions growth because of the rapid industrial development and that population growth also has certain facilitation for carbon emissions growth. The decomposition result of different scaled area based on LMDI model showed that the action and contribution of the influence factors are quite different because of the different economic development level, industrial structure and energy fuel mix in different stage and region. From the macropolicy and development strategy, directed the different economic development area, some approach such as industrial structure, technology, carbon tax and carbon trade should be carried out to lead governments at all levels and enterprises to develop low carbon economy and induce carbon emissions.

关 键 词：碳排放 LMDI模型 区域分异 中国 

分 类 号：X22[环境科学与工程—环境科学]