基于居民小区负荷成长周期的负荷预测方法  

A Load Forecasting Method Based on Load Growth Cycle of Residential Community

作　　者：赵明欣[1] 张春雷 宋曼诗 崔艳妍[1] 马丽[1] 郭伟[1] 程雪峰 于海明 

机构地区：[1]中国电力科学研究院,北京100192 [2]国网乌鲁木齐供电公司,乌鲁木齐830001

出　　处：《供用电》2016年第8期64-68,共5页Distribution & Utilization

基　　金：国家电网公司科技项目~~

摘　　要：负荷预测是供电设施规划的重要基础工作。居民小区负荷增长呈现较为明显的成长规律,在深入研究住宅需求类型、周边配套设施等负荷成长周期影响因素的基础上,提出了一种基于居民小区负荷成长周期的负荷预测方法,实现了对居民小区分年度负荷的精准预测,克服了传统预测方法的不足,为电网设施有序建设和电网资源高效利用提供了科学依据。Load forecasting is the fundamental work for planning of power supply facilities. Considering that the obvious pattern of load growth of residential community,a new load forecasting method based on load growth cycle of residential community is proposed after a deeply investigating of the influencing factors of load growth cycle such as building types and surrounding supporting facilities. It can help the planners get accurate annual load forecasting results,overcoming the disadvantages of traditional ways,providing scientific basis for orderly construction and high efficiency utilization of power facilities.

关 键 词：负荷预测 居民小区 影响因素 负荷成长周期 电网规划 

分 类 号：TM71[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]