一种气温的数值预报权重误差订正释用方法  

The weighted error correction interpretation method of numerical weather prediction for temperature

作　　者：吴哲红[1] 彭波[1] 符凤平 周文钰[1] 吴昊若 

机构地区：[1]贵州省安顺市气象局,贵州安顺561000 [2]贵州省贵阳市气象局,贵州贵阳550002

出　　处：《贵州气象》2016年第4期11-15,共5页Journal of Guizhou Meteorology

基　　金：安顺市气象局气象科研项目(2015-07-03号)"基于多模式数值预报检验订正的精细化温度预报系统研究"

摘　　要：该文在对几种数值预报产品的气温要素预报结果进行检验的基础上,尝试建立了一种权重误差订正方法:通过对数值预报产品进行检验订正,首先根据EC粗网格预报结果结合典型天气形势判断气温走势建立方程,对不同预报产品以近期准确率作为权重平均并结合误差加以订正,建立订正预报方程,对历史个例的检验和试报说明此方法对于提高气温预报的准确率,减小误差是有效的。A weighted error correction method was built based on the verification of several numerical weather predictions for temperature. The definite means are as follows： calculating the recent accuracy of different numeri- cal weather prediction for temperature firstly. Judging the temperature variation trend by combining ECMWF coarse grid forecast result with the typical synoptic situation and establish the primary temperature forecast equation. Then revising the equation via assigning the weight to the different numerical forecast products on the basis of the accura- cy calculated before and the error of the different numerical forecast products. After estimating the accuracy of the method by forecasting the temperature of historical weather cases, it turns out that this method is helpful to improve the accuracy of temperature forecast and reduce the error.

关 键 词：气温预报 数值预报检验 权重误差订正 

分 类 号：P457.3[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]