基于SPEI的华北平原近55年干旱时空特征分析  

Temporal and Spatial Characteristics of Drought in North China Plain Over the Past 55 Years Based on SPEI

作　　者：鲁佩[1] 董婕[1] 高新甜 

机构地区：[1]陕西师范大学旅游与环境学院,西安710119

出　　处：《河南科学》2016年第9期1551-1556,共6页Henan Science

摘　　要：基于华北平原53个站点1960—2014年逐日气象数据,利用标准化降水蒸散指数（SPEI）、Mann-Kendall趋势分析、小波分析等方法,对华北平原的干旱年际变化趋势、干旱频次变化特征、干湿周期变化、干旱四季变化趋势、干旱频率等进行分析,从而揭示出华北平原干旱的时空特征变化.结果表明：近55年华北平原及表现出干旱化趋势.干湿变化存在3年、5年以及10年的振荡周期,且未来几年干旱趋势为偏旱.四季干旱趋势变化具有明显差异性,秋旱范围最广,具有较明显干旱化趋势.春旱频率分布呈北多南少,东多西少的特点;夏旱频率以河北省西部和河南省最高;秋旱高频区较夏季少,频率大都在32%-34%间;冬季干旱频率在河南省北部、山东半岛以及河北省西部较高.Based on daily meteorological data of 53 stations during 1960-2014 in North China Plain, using Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index, Mann-Kendall trend analysis and wavelet analysis, we calculated the SPEI monthly values of the 55 years and statistically analyzed drought situation of the North China Plain. The results show as follows. It tends to be dry in the entire region of North China Plain in the past 55 years, there exist the oscillation period of 3 years, 5 years and 10 years in dry and wet changes, and the trend in the next few years is trend in each season has obvious difference, the range of autumn drought is widest and the trend of characteristic of spring drought frequency distribution is that the north and east were higher than summer drought frequency of Hebei Province and Henan Province is the highest. The autumn drought too. The drought drought is strongest. The the south and west, the drought in high frequency region is less than summer and the autumn drought frequency was mostly in the 32%-34%. The winter drought frequency in north of Henan Province, Shandong Peninsula, and west of Hebei Province were higher.

关 键 词：干旱 华北平原 标准化降水蒸散指数 小波分析 干旱频率 

分 类 号：X16[环境科学与工程—环境科学] K903[历史地理—人文地理学]