南京局地气候系统反演建模研究  

Inverse Modeling of Local Climate System in Nanjing

作　　者：卢鹏 

机构地区：[1]江苏省气候中心,南京210009

出　　处：《中国农学通报》2016年第26期131-137,共7页Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin

基　　金：国家973计划项目"气候变暖背景下我国南方旱涝灾害的变化规律和机理及影响与对策"(2013CB430200);江苏气象科研基金"多海区海温共同作用对江苏夏季降水的影响"(Q201402);国家自然基金"三氟化氮辐射强迫;全球增温潜能与全球温变潜能的研究"(41305132)

摘　　要：为了研究南京局地气候动力系统的演变,利用无量纲处理后的南京站1951—2013年逐年云量、气温和降水资料,采用反演建模方法,构建了1951—2013年南京局地气候模型,并对南京局地气候模型的各项系数进行了初步的物理解释。结果发现,南京局地气候模型中云量指数的变化与云量指数、降水指数和降水指数的二次项有关;气温指数的变化与气温指数、云量指数、降水指数和气温指数的二次项有关;降水指数的变化与降水指数、云量指数和降水指数的二次项有关。以每30年的数据反演局地气候模型,发现非线性部分系数呈减小趋势,其中利用1961—1990年和1962—1991年数据的反演结果中,云量和降水变化方程中降水二次项系数都发生了突变。线性部分在气候态附近保持稳定。The paper aims to study the evolution of Nanjing local climate dynamic system, the cloud cover,temperature and precipitation data with dimensionless treatment in Nanjing during 1951-2013 were used tobuilt Nanjing local climate model by using inverse model method, and a preliminary physical interpretation ofall coefficients of Nanjing local climate model was conducted. The study showed that： the change of cloud coverindex was related with cloud cover index, precipitation index and square of precipitation index; the change oftemperature index was related with temperature index, cloud cover index, precipitation index and square oftemperature index; the change of precipitation index was related with precipitation index, cloud cover indexand square of precipitation index. By studying the evolution of local climate model using each 30-year data, itwas found that the coefficient of the nonlinear part had a decreasing trend, and the models of 1961- 1990 and 1962-1991 showed a mutation in square of precipitation index in cloud cover and precipitation changeequations. In linear part, it kept stable near climate state.

关 键 词：局地气候模型 反演建模 稳定 突变 

分 类 号：P461[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]