基于随机降雨模拟的灌区塘坝蓄水方案优化  

Optimal water store control of ponds in irrigation district based on stochastic precipitation simulation

作　　者：胡能杰 邵东国[1] 陈述[1] 徐保利[1] 方龙章 

机构地区：[1]武汉大学水资源与水电工程科学国家重点实验室,武汉430072

出　　处：《农业工程学报》2016年第18期105-110,共6页Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering

基　　金：国家自然科学基金重点项目(51439006);国家自然科学基金面上项目(51379150)

摘　　要：结合南方丘陵灌区塘坝分布广、数量多、群体容量大的特点,建立库塘水资源系统优化调控模型。以漳河灌区的子灌区——杨树垱水库灌区为研究实例,应用蒙特卡洛法模拟出长序列的旬降雨,采用正交试验法选出每个模拟年份的最优塘坝控制运行方案,并对控制运行规律进行统计分析,得到不同典型年下塘坝的控制运行规则:在平水年时5月底、6月上旬末、6月下旬末、7月上旬末预留30%,6月中旬末预留10%,7月中旬末预留20%,其他各旬可全部用完;在偏枯水年时5月底预留10%,6月上旬末、6月下旬末预留20%,6月中旬末、7月上旬末、7月中旬末预留30%,其他各旬可全部用完;在特枯水年时5月底、7月中旬末预留10%,6月上旬末、6月中旬末预留30%,6月下旬末、7月上旬末、7月下旬末预留20%,其他各旬可全部用完。比较塘坝在不控制运行与优化控制运行下保证基本产量的概率,结果表明:在平水年时,相对产量在0.6以上的概率提高了2.38%;在偏枯水年时,相对产量在0.6以上的概率提高了8.80%;在特枯水年时,相对产量在0.6以上的概率提高了11.29%。研究从定量分析的角度,以单位面积产量最大为目标,提出塘坝的控制运行规则,对指导水库、塘坝的联合运行,提高灌区的灌溉效益具有重要意义。Ponds are widely distributed throughout Southern China. However, ponds have not fully played their role because of the shortage of the feasible optimal operating schemes for ponds. The main purpose of this paper was to determine an optimal operating scheme of ponds through mathematical statistics method and simulation. Firstly, distribution of a ten-day rainfall in the past 30 years（1981-2012） was fully analyzed. Then the Monte Carlo method was used to simulate the ten-day rainfall in the next 500 years. After that, a model was constructed to calculate the water quantity balances in fields, ponds and reservoirs, with the goal of maximizing the yield per unit area. Based on their built-in flexibility for storing water and their timely and reliable water supply, ponds were firstly used. Then reservoirs and ponds were adopted to irrigate crops in irrigation peak periods. The model was to simulate the different operating rules of ponds in each year, and the optimal operating rule of ponds for each year was selected by using orthogonal experiment method. At last, the operating rule under different typical year was attained by analyzing the above results. The methodology was applied to the Yangshudang reservoir irrigation district, which is a sub-region of Zhanghe irrigation district, to demonstrate its applicability. It features a subtropical monsoon climate with an average annual rainfall of 862.8 mm. Although the Yangshudang reservoir with the active storage capacity of 13.5 million cubic meters is the main irrigation water source, there are more than 3480 ponds with the storage capacity of 3.7295 million cubic meters that can support supplementary irrigation. From the results, in normal year, ponds should reserve 10% in mid-June, reserve 20% in mid-July, reserve 30% in late May, early June, late June, early July, and could be used up in the other ten-day. In dry year, ponds should reserve 10% in late May, reserve 20% in early June and late June, reserve 30% in mid-June, early July and mid-July, and could be use

关 键 词：蒙特卡洛法 灌溉渠系 概率 塘坝 控制运行 

分 类 号：TV213.4[水利工程—水文学及水资源]