中国近54年来夏季极端降水事件特征研究  

A Study on the Characteristics of Summertime Extreme Precipitation Events over China in Recent 54 Years

作　　者：龙妍妍[1] 范广洲[2] 段炼[1] 冯琬 王钦[1] 李飞[1] 张永莉[2] LONG Yanyan FAN Guangzhou DUAN Lian FENG Wan WANG Qin LI Fei and ZHANG Yongli(CivilAviation Flight University of China, Guanghan, Sichuan 618307 2 College of Atmospheric Sciences, Chengdu University of Information Technology, Plateau Atmosphere and Environment Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province, Chengdu 610225)

机构地区：[1]中国民用航空飞行学院,四川广汉618307 [2]成都信息工程大学大气科学学院,高原大气与环境四川省重点实验室,成都610225

出　　处：《气候与环境研究》2016年第4期429-438,共10页Climatic and Environmental Research

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目91537214、41275079、41305077、41405069、41505078;中国民用航空飞行学院重点项目XM1885;中国民用航空飞行学院面上项目J2014-58;成都信息工程大学科研项目J201516、J201518~~

摘　　要：利用1960～2013年中国6～8月无缺测的571站逐日降水资料,定义7个极端降水指数,研究中国夏季极端降水事件特征。结果表明：（1）极端降水事件空间分布存在明显的区域性差异,长江中下游地区、华南地区、西北地区表现为增加趋势,东北地区、华北地区、西南部分地区表现为减少趋势;时间分布表现出具有显著的年际和年代际变化特征,极端降水事件有增加趋势,在20世纪90年代初期有明显转折。（2）M-K检验表现出极端降水事件在20世纪90年代初发生突变,突变前（后）偏弱（强）。（3）极端降水指数周期振荡不完全一致,准15年周期振荡为主,其次是准7年周期,最强振动出现在1998年。（4）除持续干期指数外,其他极端降水指数间存在较好的相关性。The daily precipitation data collected from 571 stations in China for the summer （from June to August） from 1960 to 2013 are used to define seven extreme precipitation indices to investigate the characteristics of summertime extreme precipitation events over China. The results show that： （1） The spatial distribution of extreme precipitation events demonstrates remarkable regional differences. An increasing trend is found in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, South China, and Northwest China, while a decreasing trend occurs in Northeast China, North China, and part of Southwest China. Extreme precipitation events in China also show significant interannual and interdecadal variabilities with an increasing trend during the study period. An abrupt change occurred in the early 1990s. （2） Extreme precipitation events experienced a sudden change in the early 1990s based on M-K test results; extreme precipitation weakened （intensified） before （after） the sudden change. （3） The periodic oscillation of extreme precipitation events is dominated by the oscillation at the period of 15 years, followed by the secondary oscillation at the period of 7 years and the strongest oscillation occurred in 1998. （4） Extreme precipitation indices except CDD （consecutive dry days） are highly correlated with each other.

关 键 词：中国 极端降水事件 气候变率 时空特征 

分 类 号：P466[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]