江西省生态文明建设的系统仿真与优化  

SIMULATION AND OPTIMIZATION OF ECOLOGICAL CIVILIZATION CONSTRUCTIOON IN JIANGXI PROVINCE

作　　者：张振东[1] 张延飞[2,3] 唐鑫[1] 

机构地区：[1]东华理工大学地球科学学院,江西南昌330013 [2]东华理工大学理学院,江西南昌330013 [3]江西省生态文明建设制度研究中心,江西南昌330013

出　　处：《长江流域资源与环境》2016年第9期1403-1411,共9页Resources and Environment in the Yangtze Basin

基　　金：教育部人文社科基金项目"鄱阳湖域矿产资源开发生态经济系统模拟与控制"(12YJC630298);江西省社科规划项目"基于资源;环境;生态关系的江西省城市经济社会发展评价体系研究"(14GL24);江西省高校人文社科项目"江西铀矿山可持续发展系统动力学模拟研究"(JJ1104)~~

摘　　要：区域生态文明建设是以社会—经济—资源—环境为核心的动态复合巨系统。运用系统动力学的理论与方法,系统分析江西省生态文明建设诸要素间的相互作用,构建江西省生态文明建设系统动力学模型,以历史数据为基础进行仿真检验,证明模型结构、行为与实际状况是一致的。模拟维持现状、经济优先、资源环境优先和协调发展等4种方案条件下,2011-2030年间江西省生态文明建设发展现状及其演变趋势,并对系统仿真方案进行优化分析,结果表明：到2030年,在协调发展模式下,其能源供需平衡指数为–0.113,环境污染程度为0.083,既使社会经济高效发展,又促进资源集约利用、生态环境友好,是江西省生态文明建设发展的较优方案。研究为江西省开展生态文明先行示范区建设提供决策参考。Regional ecological civilization construction is a dynamic complex systematic engineering which takes socioeconomic conditions, resources and environment as its core. In this paper we applied the theory and method of system dynamics to analyze the interaction of ecological civilization construction factors（the social and economic development,the supply of energy resources and ecological environment） in Jiangxi Province. We built the dynamic model of ecological civilization construction system in Jiangxi Province, then used historical data of ecological civilization construction of Jiangxi Province to simulate the model, the high degree of authenticity proved the model was consistent with the actual situation of ecological civilization construction in Jiangxi Province. According to the change of main variables in the system dynamics simulation process, we adjusted the control variables and related parameters to simulate the development of ecological civilization construction from 2011 to 2030 under four developing scenarios（the maintaining status, the economic priority, the resource environment priority and the coordinated development model）.The simulation result suggested that, by 2030, the balance of supply and demand of energy index is –0.113, the environmental pollution degree is0.083. These could promote the efficient development of the social economy, and realize the intensive utilization of resources and friendly ecological environment under the coordinated development model. The coordinated development model will be the optimal model to develop ecological civilization construction in Jiangxi Province. In addition, the results could provide reference to the construction of ecological civilization in Jiangxi province.

关 键 词：江西省 生态文明建设 系统仿真 优化 

分 类 号：X171.1[环境科学与工程—环境科学]