气候变化条件下叶尔羌流域水库蒸发变化分析  

Study on evaporation change of reservoirs in Yarkant River Basin under climate change

作　　者：陈浩[1] 杨涛[1] 胡高辉 王思媛[1] 

机构地区：[1]河海大学水文水资源与水利工程科学国家重点实验室,江苏南京210098

出　　处：《人民长江》2016年第18期31-34,共4页Yangtze River

基　　金：国家科技支撑计划项目(2013BAC10B01)

摘　　要：为了研究气候变化对水库水面蒸发的影响,以叶尔羌河流域为研究对象,选取气温、相对湿度以及风速作为主要气候影响因子,基于人工神经网络构建统计降尺度模型。对研究区在全球气候模式BCC-CSM1.1三种情景（RCP2.6,RCP4.5,RCP8.5）下2020s、2050s、2080s时段内的蒸发量进行了预测。结果表明：叶尔羌流域水库的未来蒸发量总体呈增加态势,蒸发量E_（RCP2.6）In order to analyze the effects of climate change on evaporation of reservoirs in Yarkant River Basin,the statistical downscaling model with temperature,relative humidity and wind speed as the three main factors was established based on BP artificial neural network. The evaporation was predicted and the changes of evaporation of reservoirs in 2020 s,2050s and 2080 s were analyzed under 3 scenarios of global climate model BCC- CSM1. 1. The result shows that the evaporation of reservoirs in the basin as a whole is in increasing trend and follows the order of RCP8. 5,RCP 4. 5 and RCP2. 6. Under the three scenarios,the evaporation in 2020 s ranges from 1922. 4mm to 2337. 9mm and the loss ratio of evaporation and seepage ranges from 35. 17% to36. 40%.

关 键 词：气候变化 人工神经网络 统计降尺度 蒸发 叶尔羌流域水库 

分 类 号：P33[天文地球—水文科学]