供给侧改革、债务风险缓释与企业资产负债表修复  

Supply-side Reform, Gradual Mitigation of Debt Risk and Corporate Balance Sheet Repair

作　　者：李俊峰[1] 武修文[2] 张怡[1] Li Junfeng Wu Xiuwen Zhang Yi

机构地区：[1]中央财经大学金融学院 [2]中央财经大学统计与数学学院

出　　处：《财政研究》2016年第8期104-112,F0003,共10页Public Finance Research

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目<债务通缩;跨部门债务传染及其对宏观经济的冲击影响>(14BJY191);国家社科基金重大项目<"互联网+"推动经济转型机理与对策研究>(15ZDC024);国家自然科学基金面上项目<货币总量转向信用总量:全球虚拟经济与实体经济背离机理与宏观政策应对>(71473279)

摘　　要：金融危机后,我国资产负债过度扩张对实体经济产生"挤出效应"并形成潜在"债务通缩"风险。由于实体经济投资回报率低使得货币政策无法向企业层面有效传导以实现资产负债表修复,公共部门自身负债率过高也难以再承受过多的杠杆转移。基于需求管理政策的局限性,本文从供给侧结构性改革的角度分析其对资产负债表的修复机制,包括去产能等手段从企业资产端、杠杆转移等方面来改善资产负债表,并以资金流量表(金融交易部分)数据构造的部门间资金流量关系矩阵和金融网络关联模型,来推演供给侧结构性改革的部分措施对资产负债表修复的机理与过程。结果显示,通过去产能能够实现企业部门的利润增加,并借助部门间资金流通关系实现企业本身及其他部门的资产增值,从而降低企业资产负债率,缓解债务风险。After the financial crisis, the expansion of assets and liabilities on the real economy formed ＂crowding out＂ effect and potential ＂debt deflation＂ risk. Due to low return on investment of the real economy, monetary policy cannot be conducted to the enterprise level to achieve balance sheet repair effectively, and the public sector bears not too much leverage transfer because of high debt ratio. Owing to the limitation of demand management policies, this article analyzes the mechanism of balance sheet repair on the perspective of the supply-side structural reforms, including measures of cutting excessive industrial capacity which can improve the balance sheet in terms of corporate assets side, the lever metastasis, and deduces the mechanism and process of some measures of supply-side structural reforms on balance sheet repair, using intersectoral funds flow relation matrix on financial flows data （financial transaction portion） and financial associated networks matrix model. The result indicates that the corporate sector＇ s profits can be increased by cutting excessive industrial capacity, the asset value of the enterprise itself and other sectors can also be increased, the asset-liability ratio will be reduced and the debt risk will be eased.

关 键 词：供给侧结构性改革 资产负债表修复金 融网络关联模型 

分 类 号：F279.2[经济管理—企业管理]