大气估算模型在我国环境污染损害司法鉴定中的应用  

Application of Atmospheric Estimation Model in the Forensic Appraisal of Environmental Pollution Damage

作　　者：杨淑英[1] 孙娟[1] 沈浩松[1] 冷艳秋[1] 

机构地区：[1]山东省环境保护科学研究设计院,山东济南250013

出　　处：《中国司法鉴定》2016年第5期24-31,共8页Chinese Journal of Forensic Sciences

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(21277059)

摘　　要：目的针对大气环境污染损害鉴定评估中的溯源技术难点,根据《环境损害鉴定评估推荐方法(第Ⅱ版)给出的环境损害因果关系适用判定方法,为环境管理、环境司法等提供技术支撑。方法以某氟材料制品公司火灾事故损害鉴定为例,研究提出了科学严谨的过火失重-环境预测-因果关系的鉴定评估技术方案,根据确定的失重源强,采用国家环境保护部发布的SCREEN3估算模型进行数值模拟。结果从模拟结果可见,在假定最大源强下,火灾产生的氟化物最大影响距离不超过500 m,该范围内没有受损果园,可以确定果木减产与公司火灾不存在明显的因果关系。结论表明应用SCREEN3大气估算模型可实现保守科学定量化的污染损害溯源,对大气环境污染损害鉴定评估领域的因果关系判定具有重要的指导意义。Objective Tracing the source is difficult in the atmospheric environment damage assessment. Causality identification methods in the Recommended Approach of Environmental Damage Assessment （Ⅱ） provide technical support for environmental management, environmental forensics, etc. Method According to a fire accident occurred in a fluorine material products company, the proposal includes burnt weightlessness, environmental prediction and causality response. Based on the weightlessness source intensity, the SCREEN3 estimation model released by the Ministry of Environmental Protection was used to simulate the influence. Results According to the simulation results, under the assumed maximum source intensity, the fluoride in fire would not spread more than 500 meters. Within this range, there was no orchard. So the causality between the fruit production and the company fire was not obvious. Conclusion By applying the SCREENS atmospheric estimation model, tracing the source of the atmospheric environment damage assessment could be achieved conservatively, scientifically and quantitatively. It provides reference for the causality identification of the atmospheric pollution damage assessment.

关 键 词：大气估算模型 环境污染损害鉴定 因幕响雇 

分 类 号：X197[环境科学与工程—环境科学]