基于蒙特卡洛法的埋地悬空管道结构可靠度分析  

Structure Reliability Analysis of Buried Suspended Pipeline Based on Monte-Carlo Method

作　　者：白路遥[1] 施宁[1] 李亮亮[1] 马云宾[1] 蔡永军[1] 姬江 

机构地区：[1]中国石油管道科技研究中心油气管道输送安全国家工程实验室,河北廊坊065000 [2]西北石油管道公司质量安全环保部,陕西西安710018

出　　处：《西安石油大学学报（自然科学版）》2016年第5期48-52,59,共6页Journal of Xi’an Shiyou University（Natural Science Edition）

基　　金：中国石油天然气集团公司科研项目"大型天然气管网系统可靠性研究"(编号:2014B-3411)

摘　　要：为了计算埋地悬空管道的可靠度,基于蒙特卡洛统计模拟法,结合受力特征,建立了埋地悬空管道结构可靠度计算模型并计算了某黄土湿陷区埋地悬空管道的可靠度。为了描述不同影响因素对管道可靠度的影响程度,从管道失效概率的角度定义了参数的敏感性指标,对管道设计中经常涉及的管道外径、壁厚、埋深、悬空长度、屈服强度、温度差、管道内压7个随机变量进行了敏感性分析,讨论了参数的变化对管道可靠度的影响。结果表明:建立的埋地悬空管道可靠度计算模型能够对埋地悬空管道的可靠度进行计算;管道的悬空长度对可靠性影响程度最大,最大程度减小管道的悬空长度,适当减小管道埋深,降低管道内压,增大管道壁厚和屈服强度,有助于提高管道的可靠度。In order to calculate the reliability of buried suspended pipeline,a structural reliability model for the buried suspended pipeline was established with Monte Carlo method based on the stress characteristics of the buried suspended pipeline. The reliability of the buried suspended pipeline in a loess collapse region was calculated using the model. In addition,in order to study the influences of different factors on the reliability of pipeline,a sensitivity index is defined in the view of failure probability. Meanwhile,the sensitivity of the random variables usually used in pipeline design,such as external diameter,wall thickness,buried depth,suspended length,yield strength,temperature difference,to the reliability of the buried suspended pipeline is analyzed. The analysis results show that the established reliability calculation model can be used for calculating the reliability of buried suspended pipeline. The suspended length of pipeline is the most sensitive parameter,and therefore it should be reduced on the maximum degree. To appropriately reduce buried depth and internal pressure and to appropriately increase wall thickness and yield strength will be helpful to improving the reliability of pipeline.

关 键 词：蒙特卡洛法 埋地悬空管道 结构可靠度 敏感性分析 黄土湿陷 

分 类 号：TE832.3[石油与天然气工程—油气储运工程]