风电功率爬坡气象场景分类模型及阈值整定研究  

Study on Wind Power Ramping Weather Scenario Classification Model and Threshold Setting

作　　者：熊一[1] 査晓明[1] 秦亮[1] 欧阳庭辉 夏添[1] 

机构地区：[1]武汉大学电气工程学院,武汉430072

出　　处：《电工技术学报》2016年第19期155-162,共8页Transactions of China Electrotechnical Society

基　　金：国家重点基础研究发展(973)计划(2012CB215101);国家自然科学基金(51177113)资助项目

摘　　要：为了判定和预报引发风电功率爬坡事件的风速突变的强对流气象类型,考虑风电场实际运行状态、电力系统运行方式以及区域电网的热备用启动速度和承受能力确定风电功率爬坡定义及其爬坡气象场景判定标准。在此定义上,引入支持向量标记法构造了风电功率爬坡场景分类的极小值和极大值的初始化模型,通过合适的显著性参数因子及预分类结果,建立风电功率爬坡场景分类模型。进而根据气象学物理意义分类出典型爬坡气象类型和相关特征因子阈值范围。实例分析表明,风电功率爬坡气象场景分类模型和确定的分类特征因子阈值对预报判别出目标区域风电功率爬坡气象类型有较好的指导作用。Judging and forecasting types of strong convective weather causing velocity mutation are important to wind power ramping events. By considering the actual wind farm operation of regional power grid, power system operation mode, and the starting speed and capacity of hot standby, the definition of the wind power ramping and decision criteria of ramping weather scenario are determined. Based on this definition, the introduction of the support vector domain description method for wind power ramping scenario classification is used to establish an initializaed extremum model. Through appropriate significant parameters and preliminary classification results, the wind power ramping scenario classification model is established. Then according to the meteorological meaning, typical ramping weather types and related characteristics parameter thresholds are obtained. As a result, the case study shows that the establishment of the wind power ramping scenario classification model and the settled classification thresholds of the significant parameters can provide a good guidance for judging and forecasting the wind power ramping weather types in the target area.

关 键 词：凤电功率爬坡 爬坡场景定义 支持向量标记 分类模型优化 分类阈值整定 

分 类 号：TM73[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]