基于灰色关联分析的茯苓贸易研究  

Study on the Trade of Poria cocos Based on Grey Correlation Analysis

作　　者：张平[1,2] 郑志安[1,2] 赵祖松颖 王培清[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]中国农业大学工学院,北京100083 [2]中国农业机械化发展研究中心,北京100083

出　　处：《北方园艺》2016年第19期199-203,共5页Northern Horticulture

基　　金：无限极(中国)有限公司技改资助项目;中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助项目(2012QT007)

摘　　要：以2003—2015年茯苓出口海关统计数据为基础,通过灰色关联度分析法研究了茯苓对外贸易的状况。结果表明:茯苓出口量、出口额及出口价格呈波动上升趋势;其产新前1个月,月出口价格出现峰值的可能性较高;产新后3个月,月出口量及月出口额易出现峰值;2月茯苓出口市场表现为疲软状态;通过灰色关联度模型分析表明,茯苓出口额受内地市场茯苓价格影响较大,茯苓出口价格与出口额关联度较大。因此,就茯苓对外贸易而言,其市场稳定,前景较好,应重视汇率、季节性对茯苓贸易的影响,做好茯苓对外贸易整体布局,深入挖掘国内外市场潜力。In this paper,the research on the foreign trade of Poria cocos was studied by using the gray correlation analysis based on the export customs data of the 2003-2015. The results showed that the export quantity,the export volume and the price of the exports fluctuated upward. The monthly export prices had a higher likelihood of peak value in 1 month before production. Monthly export quantity and monthly export volume were prone to peak value in 3 months after the birth of the new. In February,the export market showed a weak state. Grey relational degree model analysis showed that the price of the mainland market had a great impact on the export volume, and the correlation between the export price and export volume was larger. Therefore,in terms of foreign trade of Poria cocos ,its market is stability,the prospect is good. We should pay attention to the impact of Poria cocos by trade exchange rate and season. In the same time, we should do a good job of the overall layout of the foreign trade and have a in-depth excavation of domestic and foreign market potential.

关 键 词：茯苓 灰色关联度 贸易研究 

分 类 号：S567.31[农业科学—中草药栽培]