证券分析师性别、盈余预测偏差与纠偏能力  

Securities Analysts' Gender,Earnings Forecast Bias and Correction Capability

作　　者：吕兆德[1] 曾雪寒[1] LV Zhaode ZENG Xuehan(Business School, Beifing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China)

机构地区：[1]北京师范大学经济与工商管理学院,北京100875

出　　处：《北京工商大学学报（社会科学版）》2016年第5期77-86,共10页JOURNAL OF BEIJING TECHNOLOGY AND BUSINESS UNIVERSITY:SOCIAL SCIENCES

基　　金：国家社会科学基金青年项目(13CGL036);中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金(SKZZY2015025)

摘　　要：证券分析师个人特征是其能力的重要表征。文章选取2007—2014年我国资本市场相关数据,研究了证券分析师的性别对盈余预测偏差的影响,以及盈余预测偏差的时间序列特征,实证结果显示:第一,整体上男性分析师的盈余预测偏差大于女性分析师;第二,男性分析师对于盈余预测偏差的纠正能力高于女性分析师;第三,随着对公司跟踪时间的增加,男性分析师的盈余预测偏差下降速度更快。研究结果说明,对于分析师跟踪时间较短的公司,女性分析师的盈余预测偏差较小,而对于受分析师长期跟踪的公司,男性分析师的盈余预测结果更准确。研究结论对投资者依据分析师性别判定其盈利预测准确性具有重要意义。The personal characteristics of securities analysts are important representation of their capability. This paper studies the influence of gender on securities analysts＇ earnings forecast bias, and the time series features of earnings forecast bias. The results show that： Firstly, on the whole, male analysts have greater earnings forecast bias than female analysts; Secondly, male analysts have stronger correction capability than women analysts; Thirdly, the longer the tracking time in a company, the faster male analysts decline in earnings forecast bias. The results indicate that for a short tracking time, female analysts are more accurate in earnings forecast, while for a long time, male analysts are more precise in earnings forcast. The conclusions in this paper are of great significance for investors to judge the accuracy of earnings forecast based on the analysts＇ gender.

关 键 词：证券分析师 分析师性别 盈余预测偏差 纠偏能力 风险厌恶 信息处理 

分 类 号：F275[经济管理—企业管理] F224[经济管理—国民经济]