巨灾对全球贸易的影响评估  

Assessment on the Impact of Large-scale Disasters on Global Trade

作　　者：孟永昌 杨赛霓[1,2] 史培军[1,2] 王铸[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]北京师范大学地表过程与资源生态国家重点实验室,北京100875 [2]民政部/教育部减灾与应急管理研究院,北京100875

出　　处：《灾害学》2016年第4期49-53,共5页Journal of Catastrophology

基　　金：国家外国专家局和教育部"111计划""北京师范大学综合灾害风险管理创新引智基地"(B08008)

摘　　要：随着经济全球化的不断发展,巨灾对全球贸易的影响问题越来越受到人们的普遍关注,为此该文构建了全球的贸易引力模型,结合1980-2012年全球各个国家与地区的GDP、相互距离、人口、国土面积、共同边界、共同语言和巨灾发生频次等数据,并采用泊松伪最大似然法估计了模型中的参数,确定了贸易对不同影响因子的弹性。结果表明:巨灾对全球贸易的影响是显著的,发生在进口国家与地区巨灾频次的增加,会导致其进口量的增加;发生在出口国家与地区巨灾频次的增加,会导致其出口量的减少。且从全球平均水平来看,巨灾对出口的抑制作用大于对进口的促进作用。With the development of economic globalization,the impacts of large-scale disasters on global trade are attracting more attentions; this paper proposes a gravity model and estimates the parameters＇ elasticities,using Poisson pseudo-maximum likelihood method with the data of countries and regions all over the world. The data consist of GDP,distance,population,land area,common border,common language and large-scale disasters from1980 to 2012. Study results show that： the impacts of large-scale disasters on global trade are significant,and an addition of the importer＇s large-scale disasters increases the import; an addition of the exporter＇s large-scale disasters decreases the export. From the point of global average condition,the negative impacts of large-scale disasters on export are greater than the positive impacts on import.

关 键 词：巨灾 全球贸易 影响评估 引力模型 进口 出口 

分 类 号：X43[环境科学与工程—灾害防治]