BFAST——一种分析气候极端事件变化的新方法  

BFAST——A New Method to Analyze Change of Climate Extremes

作　　者：王烨[1,2] 李宁[1,3,2] 张正涛[1,2] 张洁[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]北京师范大学地表过程与资源生态国家重点实验室,北京100875 [2]民政部/教育部减灾与应急管理研究院,北京100875 [3]北京师范大学环境演变与自然灾害教育部重点实验室,北京100875

出　　处：《灾害学》2016年第4期196-199,共4页Journal of Catastrophology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目"基于多维联合分布理论的灾害风险评估模型研究"(41171401);中央高校基本科研业务专项资金项目;地表过程与资源生态国家重点实验室项目(20152708)

摘　　要：为了分析北京气候变化对极端事件频次的影响,采用Mann-Kendall突变检验方法对北京站1952-2010年年平均温度数据进行突变分析,在不能成功地检测到北京年平均温度的突变情况时,引入BFAST方法处理月平均温度时间序列,这是由于月平均温度数据与年数据相比更加精细,灾害或极端事件发生的情况在月数据上有更加良好的反映,得到月平均温度的变化趋势和突变点后,进一步探究北京极端高温事件频次的变化。研究结果显示,BFAST监测到的气候变化趋势和突变点与极端高温频次的变化有较好的一致性,它是一个判定气候变化情况和分析气候极端事件的有力工具。To analyze the influence of climate change on the frequency of extreme events in Beijing,firstly,Mann-Kendall method is used to deal with annual average temperature data in 1952-2010 of Beijing station. Since abrupt change of the annual average temperature of Beijing was not successfully detected,BFAST is introduced to deal with the monthly average temperature time series,this is because monthly average data is more sophisticated compared with annual average data,diasaster or extreme events can be better reflected on monthly data. The article further explores the changes of the frequency of extreme high temperature events in Beijing after gaining the trend and abrupt change of monthly average data. The results show that the climate change trend and abrupt change which BFAST detected is consistent with the change of the frequency of extreme high temperature events. BFAST is a powerful tool to determine climate change and to analyze climate extremes.

关 键 词：M-K突变检验 BFAST方法 气候变化 极端高温事件 

分 类 号：X43[环境科学与工程—灾害防治] P461[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]