城镇化进程中家庭CO_2排放的驱动因素分析  

Driving factors of China's household CO_2 emissions in the process of urbanization

作　　者：米红[1] 张田田[1] 任正委[2] 周伟[3] 

机构地区：[1]浙江大学公共管理学院,浙江杭州310058 [2]浙江理工大学法政学院,浙江杭州310018 [3]浙江大学西部发展研究院人口与发展研究所,浙江杭州310058

出　　处：《中国环境科学》2016年第10期3183-3192,共10页China Environmental Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(71303212);浙江省自然科学基金重点项目(LZ13G030001)

摘　　要：使用IPCC推荐的方法与投入-产出模型分别测算中国家庭直接与间接CO_2排放.从家庭户城镇化的视角,引入对数平均迪氏指数分解（LMDI）模型,将家庭CO_2排放分解为户数效应、城镇化效应、生活水平效应、生活方式效应、能源强度效应.结果表明：1995-2012年,城乡平均家庭规模分别减少0.37人/户、0.6人/户,城镇家庭CO_2排放增加17.4亿t,而农村家庭CO_2排放减少了0.79亿t;收入水平和城乡家庭户数分别对家庭CO_2排放增长贡献24.9亿t、4.64亿t;家庭户城镇化水平拉动3.14亿t间接CO_2排放;城乡家庭消费结构具有不同程度的高碳化特征,对间接CO_2排放的累计贡献度分别为10.3%、12.8%;能源强度效应累计抑制21.1亿t CO_2排放.China＇s direct household CO2 emissions were calculated with the method recommended by IPCC. And indirect household CO2 emissions were estimated using input-output table. Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index （LMDI） method was applied to decompose China＇s household CO2 emissions in terms of quantity effect, urbanization effect, living standard effect, lifestyle effect and intensity effect. The results are as follows： From 1995 to 2012,urban and rural average household size decreased 0.37 and 0.6respectively. Urban household CO2 emissions increased by 1,740 million tons while rural household CO2 emissions decreased by 79million tons. Income and the quantity of households contributed 2.49 and 0.464 billion tons to household CO2 emissions respectively. Household urbanization contributed 0.314 billion tons to the indirect household CO2 emissions. Urban and rural household consumption structures were carbon intensive at different levels with the accumulative contribution rate of 10.3% and 12.8respectively. Energy intensity effect reduced 2.11 billion tons of household CO2 emissions in total.

关 键 词：家庭CO2排放 家庭户城镇化 IPCC碳排放系数法 投入-产出模型 LMDI分解模型 

分 类 号：X196[环境科学与工程—环境科学]