中国城镇化、产业结构高级化对CO_2排放的影响——基于独立效应和联动效应双重视角  

Impact of urbanization and higher performance industrial structure on CO_2 emissions in China:independent and coupling effects

作　　者：孙叶飞[1] 周敏[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国矿业大学管理学院,徐州221116

出　　处：《资源科学》2016年第10期1846-1860,共15页Resources Science

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学研究规划基金项目(15YJA630106)

摘　　要：研究城镇化与产业结构高级化对CO_2排放的影响效应,对于促进CO_2减排,实现经济可持续发展具有重要的现实意义。本文利用2000-2014年的中国省际面板数据,基于独立效应和联动效应双重视角,在对城镇化"质量效应"与"扩张效应"分析的基础上,结合由产业结构高级化的"结构红利"而产生的"经济服务化"趋势,实证分析了城镇化与产业结构高级化对CO_2排放的影响机理。结果发现:(1)独立效应视角下,中国城镇化尚处于发展阶段,大规模的人口迁移带来基础设施的扩建,最终导致城镇化的"扩张效应"占主导地位,"质量效应"的CO_2减排作用尚不明显,因此城镇化与CO_2排放存在正相关关系。产业结构高级化所带来的"结构红利"促使经济发展表现出服务化特征,以及产生的技术进步与技术替代效应都有利于CO_2减排,因此产业结构高级化与CO_2排放存在负相关关系;(2)联动效应视角下,产业结构高级化提升了城镇吸纳能力与现代城镇化水平,促进了城镇化"质量效应"的发挥,因此产业结构高级化带来的这种"结构红利"有助于弱化城镇化"扩张效应"所带来的高CO_2排放现象,但是弱化功能存在空间异质性。In order to reduce carbon dioxide emissions and achieve sustainable economic development,we studied the nexus among urbanization,higher performance industrial structure,and carbon dioxide emissions using panel data from 2000 to 2014 for Chinese provinces. Based on the analysis of the quality effect and expansion effect from urbanization,and the trend of service economy produced by higher performance industrial structure,we studied the nexus from different perspectives. The empirical results indicated that migration caused infrastructure expansion during the process of urbanization,so the expansion effect controls the development of urbanization,and the quality effect has not yet played the role of reducing carbon dioxide emissions. There is a positive correlation between urbanization and carbon dioxide emissions. The structural bonus brought by higher performance industrial structure promotes the economic development to show the characteristics of service,so there is a negative correlation between higher performance industrial structure and carbon dioxide emissions. The technological progress and technological substitution produced by higher performance industrial structure are also beneficial to reducing carbon dioxide emissions. Higher performance industrial structure can enhance the capability of absorbing migrants and the level of modern urbanization,so the quality effect of urbanization can reduce carbon dioxide emissions. We can conclude that the structural bonus of higher performance industrial structure can help weaken the high carbon dioxide emissions phenomenon resulting from the expansion effect,but the weakening function shows space heterogeneity.

关 键 词：城镇化 产业结构高级化 CO2排放 独立效应 联动效应 中国 

分 类 号：F299.21[经济管理—国民经济] X22[环境科学与工程—环境科学] F121.3