基于灰色预测模型和线性内插法的溢油灾后生物修复降解率辅助决策模型研究  

Aided decision-making model of post-disaster bioremediation degradation rates for oil spills based on grey model and linear interpolation

作　　者：高胜哲[1] 王仕如 樊鑫[2] 于红[3] 戚浩然 周一兵[2] 

机构地区：[1]大连海洋大学理学院,辽宁大连116023 [2]大连海洋大学辽宁省海洋生物资源恢复与生境修复重点实验室,辽宁大连116023 [3]大连海洋大学信息工程学院,辽宁大连116023 [4]大连市海洋与渔业局科技处,辽宁大连116011

出　　处：《大连海洋大学学报》2016年第5期572-575,共4页Journal of Dalian Ocean University

基　　金：国家海洋公益性行业科研专项(201305002)

摘　　要：为研发溢油污染事故后续修复和渔业生产恢复辅助决策系统,采用灰色预测模型与线性内插法相结合的数学方法,构建溢油灾后生物修复降解率辅助决策模型并进行实证研究。结果表明：构建的模型预测精度为93.65%-97.53%,预测模型是可行的。研究表明,基于灰色预测模型与线性内插法相结合的建模方法有效地解决了溢油灾后生物修复模拟试验中局部数据序列非等时距的建模问题,能够满足建立生物修复降解率辅助决策模型的需要,能够对溢油灾后修复与渔业生产恢复进行中长期决策提供辅助支持。An aided decision-making model was established for post-disaster bioremediation degradation rates from oil spills by a mathematical method based on the combination of grey prediction theory with linear interpolation to develop aided decision-making system of post-disaster remediation and fishery production recovery after oil spills. The results showed that the prediction model had predicted accuracy range from 93. 65% to 97. 53%,indicating that the model is feasible due to the fact that the modeling method combining the grey prediction theory and linear interpolation dealt effectively with the modeling problems with locally non-isochronous data sequences. The proposed model was shown to meet the requirement for establishment of bioremediation aided decision model of degradation rate and to provide auxiliary support for medium and long-term decisions for post-disaster remediation and recovery of fishery production from oil spills.

关 键 词：灰色预测模型 线性内插法 生物修复 降解率 辅助决策模型 

分 类 号：X55[环境科学与工程—环境工程] O29[理学—应用数学]