通货膨胀与厂商间价格分布——以车险市场为例  

Inflation and Firms' Price Distribution:A Study on the Auto Insurance Market

作　　者：王向楠[1] WANG Xiangnan(Institute of Finance and Banking, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, Beijing 100028, China)

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院金融研究所,北京100028

出　　处：《管理科学》2016年第5期147-159,共13页Journal of Management Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(71203133);国家社会科学基金(13&ZD161)~~

摘　　要：价格离散和厂商相对价格波动分别从静态和动态衡量厂商间的价格分布,均是重要的微观现象。通货膨胀是一种基础性的宏观现象,对于整体经济和微观主体决策有重要的影响。因此,研究通货膨胀是否以及如何影响价格离散和厂商相对价格波动是有意义的话题。梳理解释价格离散为何长期存在的已有研究,基于厂商菜单成本理论、消费者搜寻理论和厂商信号提取理论,提出4个研究假设。鉴于中国车险市场数据的优势,从多个公开、可靠的来源收集2004年至2014年中国200多个地级城市车险企业的经营数据、消费价格指数和相关变量数据。通过对企业-城市-年度三维数据的回归分析,并结合描述性统计,获得定量的研究结论。研究发现,车险市场一直存在明显的价格离散,厂商相对价格的波动性很强,可以解释价格离散为何能够长期持续;没有充分的证据表明预期通货膨胀会影响价格离散或厂商相对价格波动,所以不支持菜单成本理论的预测;非预期通货膨胀(绝对值)对价格离散有显著的正向影响,支持消费者搜寻理论;非预期通货膨胀(绝对值)对厂商相对价格的波动性也有显著的正向影响,支持厂商信号提取理论。利用不同城市-年度构成的市场中的通货膨胀差异和同一种产品(车险)上的厂商价格分布的差异,能够排除已有研究普遍遇到的不同产品的异质性、产品之间的相关性和通货膨胀指标可能为内生变量的问题,提高研究结论的准确性。已有研究对中国市场上价格离散的持续性、通货膨胀对价格离散和厂商相对价格波动的影响鲜有探讨,如果能获得合适的数据,所采用的研究思路和方法可被用于研究其他领域的类似问题。研究结果的管理启示在于,厂商的价格制定和消费者的商品选择需要考虑互动性,加强货币政策的透明度和市场预期管理,发展信息类市场基�Price dispersion and firms＇ relative price variability which measure the price distribution among firms from the static and dynamic perspective respectively, are two important micro phenomenons. As a basic macro phenomenon, inflation influences the macro economy and the decision of micro units greatly. This paper studies inflation whether and how to influence the two types of price distribution among firms. Based on the literature explaining the existence of long-term price dispersion, firm menu cost theory, consumer search theory and firm signal extraction theory, this paper puts forward four research hypotheses. We collected the data on the auto insurance market, consumer price index and relevant variables of more than 200 prefecture-level cities during 2004 - 2014 from several open and reliable data sources, considering some important advantages of the data from Chinese auto insurance market. Through the regression analysis based on the firm-city-year＇s three-dimensional data and descriptive statistical analysis, we obtain the quantitative conclusions. The main results are as follows. （1） Price dispersion significantly exists in the auto insurance market and auto insurers＇ relative price fluctuates greatly which can explain the long-term price dispersion. （2） No obvious evidence shows the effects of expected inflation on price dispersion or firm＇s relative price variability, so the prediction of menu costs theory is not supported. （3） Unexpected inflation （absolute value） has a positive and significant effect on price dispersion which supports the predictions of consumer search theory. （4） Unexpected inflation （absolute value） has a positive and significant effect on firms＇ relative price variability which supports the predictions of firms signal extraction theory. This paper uses the differences of inflation as well as firms＇ price distribution among city-year markets of the same good （auto insurance）. So we can eliminate the heterogeneity among different goods, the

关 键 词：价格离散 厂商相对价格波动 预期通货膨胀 非预期通货膨胀 车险市场 

分 类 号：F27[经济管理—企业管理]