GM(1,1)模型在润滑油性能预测中的应用  

Application of GM(1,1) Model in Performance Prediction of Lubricating Oil

作　　者：于涛[1] 董瑞[1] 赵凯[1] YU Tao DONG Rui ZHAO Kai(91315 Troop, Dalian 116041, China)

机构地区：[1]中国人民解放军91315部队

出　　处：《润滑油》2016年第5期51-54,共4页Lubricating Oil

摘　　要：利用灰色系统GM(1,1)预测模型对润滑油中的元素进行趋势预测,首先利用元素历史数据建立动态微分方程,然后基于该微分方程预测元素的变化趋势,为润滑油性能分析和故障定位提供参考。通过对某型柴油机润滑油元素监测来预测其性能,结果表明该预测方法具有数据量小、计算简单、预测准确的特点。This article applied the gray system GM（1,1） model to predict the change trends of elements in lubricating oils. Firstly,the dynamic differential equation for elements was established based on their historical data. Then according to the differential equation,the change trends of elements can be predicted,which can be use as important reference for performance analysis and fault location of lubricating oil. Monitored experiments on a certain type of diesel engine lubricating oil were made and elements change trends were got to predict performance. The results show that the prediction method has the characteristics of a small amount of data,simple calculation and correct prediction.

关 键 词：GM(1 1)模型 润滑油 性能预测 

分 类 号：TE626.3[石油与天然气工程—油气加工工程]