中国省域煤炭消费与经济增长的关系研究  

Research on the Relationship between Coal Consumption and Economic Growth of Different Provinces in China

作　　者：吕连宏[1,2] 薛婕[2] 杨占红[2] 裴莹莹[2] 罗宏[2] 

机构地区：[1]中共中央编译局世界发展战略研究部,北京100032 [2]中国环境科学研究院环境与经济研究室,北京100012

出　　处：《生态经济》2016年第11期47-52,共6页Ecological Economy

基　　金：国家能源局发展规划司研究课题"我国能源开发利用对生态安全影响评估"(2016-04);中国环境科学研究院中央级公益性科研院所基本科研业务专项"环境空气质量约束下煤炭消费总量的优化分配"

摘　　要：中国是全球最大的煤炭生产国、消费国与进口国,煤炭开采和使用过程中引发了以大气污染为主的诸多环境问题。中国即将全面实施煤炭消费总量控制政策以应对大气污染,但各省份的控制目标仍在研究制定中。应用计量经济学的协整和格兰杰因果关系检验方法,选取1986～2012年的煤炭消费量与人均地区生产总值两个指标,对比研究中国各省份煤炭消费与经济增长的关系,并提出制定煤炭消费总量控制目标的建议。研究结果表明,不同省份的煤炭消费与经济增长之间的关系各不相同,有28个省份的煤炭消费与经济增长均为协整关系,有10个省份的煤炭消费对经济增长具有直接因果关系,为了保持新常态下区域社会经济的稳定发展,制定各省份煤炭消费总量控制目标与措施应区别对待。China is the world＇s largest producer, consumer and importer of coal, and lots of environmental problems just like air pollution was caused during the coal mining and utilization process. To deal with serious air pollution, the total coal consumption control policy will be fully implemented in China, how to determine the control target of every province still being studied. Two indicators of Coal Consumption （CC） and per Capita Gross Regional Product （CGRP） during 1986 to 2012 was selected and Co-integration and Granger causality test of Econometrics was applied to analyze the relationship of every province between coal consumption and economic growth in China, the suggestions of determining total coal consumption control targets were proposed. The results show that the relationships between coal consumption and economic growth in different provinces were different. The relationship between coal consumption and economic growth is co- integration in 28 provinces, and coal consumption has a direct causal relationship on economic growth in 10 provinces. In order to maintain stable development in the new normal, it should be treated differently to propose coal consumption control targets and measures in those provinces.

关 键 词：协整 格兰杰因果关系 煤炭消费 经济发展 

分 类 号：TK018[动力工程及工程热物理] X24[环境科学与工程—环境科学]