基于TCPI的灾害影响年代际变化与异常区分析  

TCPI-based analysis of decadal changes and abnormal region of disaster impact

作　　者：张丽杰[1] ZHANG Lijie(Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters Nanjing University of Information Science ＆ Technology, Nanjing 210044, China)

机构地区：[1]南京信息工程大学气象灾害预报预警与评估协同创新中心,江苏南京210044

出　　处：《自然灾害学报》2016年第5期20-27,共8页Journal of Natural Disasters

基　　金：江苏省教育厅高校哲学社会科学基金项目(2016SJB630021);江苏高校优势学科建设工程资助项目;国家公益性行业专向(GYHY 201506051)~~

摘　　要：热带气旋防灾工程可以有效减少灾害损失,但其建设决策需要多领域研究与技术支持。使用TCPI和密度聚类算法研究了热带气旋影响的年代际变化与异常区分布。研究发现,近30年,我国平均TCPI并没有明显增加,但在福建、浙江和台湾TCPI则有显著增加。异常区分析显示,福建北部和浙江南部是异常区的核心区,周边还包括浙江北部、上海、台湾、江西等地,广西西北部的一些地区变化也非常剧烈。Tropical cyclone disaster prevention projects can be effective in reducing disaster losses, but its con- struction decisions require muhidisciplinary research and technical support. This paper uses tropical cyclone poten- tial impact （TCPI） and density clustering algorithm to study decadal change and abnormal region of tropical cy- clones. The study find that in recent three decades, China＇s average TCPI has not increased significantly, but in Fujian, Zhejiang and Taiwan, the TCPI has increased significantly. Analysis of abnormal region shows that, north- ern Fujian and southern Zhejiang Provinces are the core area of the abnormal region, perimeter still includes the northern part of Zhejiang, Shanghai, Taiwan, Jiangxi and other places, some areas in the northwest of Guangxi are also very intense.

关 键 词：热带气旋 灾害 异常区 TCPI 密度聚类算法 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]