基于贝叶斯原理的车次号追踪方法  

A Bayesian Method for Train Number Tracking in Railway Network

作　　者：袁志明[1] 张琦[2] 黄康[2] 陈峰[2] 

机构地区：[1]中国铁道科学研究院,北京100081 [2]中国铁道科学研究院通信信号研究所,北京100081

出　　处：《交通运输系统工程与信息》2016年第5期85-89,96,共6页Journal of Transportation Systems Engineering and Information Technology

基　　金：中国铁道科学研究院基金(2015YJ054)~~

摘　　要：在铁路行车调度指挥中,需要实时掌握列车在路网中的实际位置.本文对承载列车位置信息的车次号追踪方法的实现和优化进行研究.在分析车次号追踪问题基础上给出了问题的数学描述和依赖于信号状态及列车行车计划的车次号基本追踪模型,并在此基础上,构建了基于贝叶斯原理的车次号追踪优化方法和模型.采用津秦高速铁路数据对实现的车次号追踪模型进行仿真和分析,并对车次号追踪模型在各种约束下的实现结果进行比较分析.结果表明,该优化的车次追踪算法能有效地降低车次号追踪的误判,具有良好的容错性和鲁棒性.It is necessary to get the train position in the railway network in real time for the railway traffic control. This paper investigates implementation and optimization method of train number tracking, by which the train position information can be captured. According to the characters of the train number tracking problem, the mathematical description of the problem and the tracking model based on railway signal states and train schedule are proposed. Then a method using Bayesian principle is proposed to make improvement.The data of Tianjin-Qinhuangdao Railway is used to make simulation for the train number tracking model.The simulation result is compared with results which are obtained under some restrictions and some analysis are discussed. The results show that the proposed method can effectively improve the accuracy of train number tracking and with better fault-tolerant robustness.

关 键 词：铁路运输 车次号追踪 贝叶斯原理 列车 列车位置预测 

分 类 号：U292.4[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]