基于ARIMA-MC模型钢铁企业高炉煤气发生量预测  

Prediction of Blast Furnace Gas in Iron and Steel Enterprises Based on ARIMA-MC Model

作　　者：熊文真[1] 赵娜[1] XIONG Wenzhen ZHAO Na(Xinyang Vocational ＆ Technical College Xinyang, Henan 46400)

机构地区：[1]信阳职业技术学院,河南信阳464000

出　　处：《工业安全与环保》2016年第10期100-102,共3页Industrial Safety and Environmental Protection

摘　　要：为了预测钢铁企业高炉煤气发生量,本文用ARIMA模型及马尔科夫链建立了ARIMA-MC模型对高炉煤气的发生量进行预测。结合某钢铁企业实际的原始数据,通过实验,随机抽取多组测试结果中的两组,1#和2#各30个点进行预测,结果表明预测平均相对误差分别为2.27%、3.03%。实验结果证明新算法的有效性。In order to predict blast furnace gas from iron and steel enterprises,ARIMA- MC Model is established based on ARIMA model and Markov chain to predict the blast furnace gas occurrence. In accordance with the primary data from one iron and steel enterprise,two groups in several groups of test resluts are randomly selected to carry out prediction for blast furnace 1#and 2#in 30 prediction points and the average relative prediction errors are 2. 27% and3. 03% respectively. The experimental results show the effectiveness of the algorithm.

关 键 词：高炉煤气发生量 ARIMA模型 ARIMA-MC模型 马尔科夫链 

分 类 号：TF54[冶金工程—钢铁冶金]