城市轨道交通PPP项目运营期风险评估研究  

Research on Risk Level Assessment of Urban Rail Transit PPP Project in Operation Period

作　　者：吴守荣[1] 王程程[1] 阎祥东 

机构地区：[1]山东科技大学土木工程与建筑学院,山东青岛266590

出　　处：《都市快轨交通》2016年第5期36-40,共5页Urban Rapid Rail Transit

摘　　要：采用层次分析法和系统动力学法,对城市轨道交通PPP项目运营期风险因素进行识别,建立风险系统流图;在层次分析法和熵值法确定风险因素权重的基础上,运用Vensim PLE软件评估项目的总体风险水平,得出城市轨道交通PPP项目运营期风险SD模型仿真结果。This paper identifies risk elements of urban rail transit PPP project in operation period and sets up risk system flow diagram with adoption of the analytic hierarchy process and the system dynamics. It evaluates the overall risk level of the project with Vensim PLE on the basis of confirming the weight of risks with the analytic hierarchy process and the entropy method and then finds out risk SD model simulation results of rail transit during operation period.

关 键 词：轨道交通 PPP项目 系统动力学 风险评估 系统流图 VENSIM PLE软件 SD模型 

分 类 号：U231[交通运输工程—道路与铁道工程] F272.13[经济管理—企业管理]