On the accumulative contribution of CO_2 emission from China to global climate change  

作　　者：BAO Ying QIAO FangLi SONG ZhenYa 

机构地区：[1]First Institute of Oceanography,State Oceanic Administration [2]Laboratory for Regional Oceanography and Numerical Modeling, Qingdao National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology [3]Key Lab of Marine Science and Numerical Modeling,State Oceanic Administration

出　　处：《Science China Earth Sciences》2016年第11期2202-2212,共11页中国科学（地球科学英文版）

基　　金：supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China-Shandong Joint Fund for Marine Science Research Centers (Grant No. U1406404);the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 41306029);the Basic Scientific Fund for National Public Research Institutes of China (Grant Nos. 2013T01 & 2014G25);the International Cooperation Project of Ministry of Science and Technology of China (Grant No. 2011DFA20970);supported by the Transport Ocean Project (Grant No. 2015ASKJ01);Ao-Shan Talent Program

摘　　要：A study of the contribution to global climate change from China's CO_2 emission is conducted using the FIO-ESM v1.0 climate model. A series of sensitivity experiments are performed to identify two kinds of contributions to global climate change of China's CO_2 emission due to fossil fuel combustion: one is the pure contribution which is the historical climate response from the sensitivity experiment forced only by China's CO_2 emission, the other is the accumulative contribution which is proposed in this research and defined as the difference of historical climate responses between the experiments forced by all countries' CO_2 emission and other countries' CO_2 emission excluding China. The pure contribution approach considers the total CO_2 discharged by China, while the accumulative contribution approach considers not only the discharge amount of China but also the discharge order of China and other countries. The latter is a more realistic approach to quantify the contribution of CO_2 emission to the historical change of atmospheric CO_2 concentration, surface air temperature(SAT), sea surface temperature(SST) and sea ice coverage in the Arctic. Model results show that from the accumulative perspective, the ratio of the contribution of CO_2 emission from China for the increase of atmospheric CO_2 concentration, SAT and SST, and the decrease of the sea ice coverage in the Arctic to that from all other countries excluding China varies from 8% to 92%, 5% to 95%, 9% to91% and 18% to 82%, respectively. Here we take the contribution of China's CO_2 emission as an example, the contribution of CO_2 emission from any other country or area can be evaluated by the same approach.A study of the contribution to global climate change from China＇s CO_2 emission is conducted using the FIO-ESM v1.0 climate model. A series of sensitivity experiments are performed to identify two kinds of contributions to global climate change of China＇s CO_2 emission due to fossil fuel combustion： one is the pure contribution which is the historical climate response from the sensitivity experiment forced only by China＇s CO_2 emission, the other is the accumulative contribution which is proposed in this research and defined as the difference of historical climate responses between the experiments forced by all countries＇ CO_2 emission and other countries＇ CO_2 emission excluding China. The pure contribution approach considers the total CO_2 discharged by China, while the accumulative contribution approach considers not only the discharge amount of China but also the discharge order of China and other countries. The latter is a more realistic approach to quantify the contribution of CO_2 emission to the historical change of atmospheric CO_2 concentration, surface air temperature（SAT）, sea surface temperature（SST） and sea ice coverage in the Arctic. Model results show that from the accumulative perspective, the ratio of the contribution of CO_2 emission from China for the increase of atmospheric CO_2 concentration, SAT and SST, and the decrease of the sea ice coverage in the Arctic to that from all other countries excluding China varies from 8% to 92%, 5% to 95%, 9% to91% and 18% to 82%, respectively. Here we take the contribution of China＇s CO_2 emission as an example, the contribution of CO_2 emission from any other country or area can be evaluated by the same approach.

关 键 词：Accumulative contribution Pure contribution Climate model CO_2 emission 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学] X16[环境科学与工程—环境科学]