中国民航旅客量季节性问题研究  

Investigating Seasonality of Air Passengers in China

作　　者：秦宏瑶 唐勇[2] 胡丹[2] 方艳[2] 李晓强[2] 

机构地区：[1]四川电影电视学院空乘系,四川成都610036 [2]成都理工大学旅游与城乡规划学院,四川成都610059

出　　处：《航空计算技术》2016年第5期95-98,共4页Aeronautical Computing Technique

基　　金：四川入境旅游发展制约因素与市场拓展研究项目资助(LYC14-30);四川省旅游业青年专家2015年度研究课题项目资助(SCTYETP2015L02)

摘　　要：中国民航旅客量的季节性波动是经济学研究的重要命题。选取中国民航旅客量时间序列数据作为分析对象,采用年度季节强度指数(R)与月季指数(Z_t),揭示中国民航旅客量的年度季节集中性与月度季节变化规律。R值整体上呈现逐年递增的趋势,指标随季节变化明显,且按一定规律分布。Z_t值指示4月、7月、8月、9月、10月为旺季,其余月份为淡季。民航旅客量淡旺季与游客出游行为、节假日长短、气候等因素有直接联系。研究结论为解决中国民航旅客量的淡旺季问题提供基础数据,也为调整航空公司在淡旺季时的人员、航班及其他工作安排,为缓解航空客流量供需不平衡的矛盾提供决策参考。This study investigates seasonality of air passengers in China by using seasonality intensity and seasonal decomposition. The annual concentration index of tourist revenue （R） reveals that seasonal con- centration through the year saw a general ascending trend spanning from 2006 to 2013. To look deeper, the seasonal decomposition explains the time serial by using monthly seasonal indices （Z,）. As a result, the peak season goes to March, June, August, September and October while the off - season falls on Janu- ary, February, and April, May, July and December. In conclusion, this study implies that there are signifi- cant correlations between public festivals and holidays with seasonal variation of air passenger indexes, and the findings with important policy implications will help understanding the seasonal pattern in air passengers along the year, and mitigating the negative effects of seasonality in the future.

关 键 词：时间序列模型 季节强度 季节分解 航空旅客量 

分 类 号：F562[经济管理—产业经济] F592.3