基于前景理论的动态路径选择模型研究  

Prospect theory based dynamic route choice model

作　　者：史国琪 贾富强[2] 

机构地区：[1]兰州交通大学交通运输学院,甘肃兰州730070 [2]兰州交通大学管理科学与工程重点学科建设基地,甘肃兰州730070

出　　处：《山东科学》2016年第5期111-116,123,共7页Shandong Science

摘　　要：在实际出行过程中受多种不确定因素的影响,导致出行者的路径选择行为往往是动态的。本文考虑出行者在路径选择过程中的有限理性以及路径改变方式,在前景理论的基础上建立了动态路径选择模型,提出了更适合人们思维习惯的动态路径选择方法。该方法允许出行者根据道路情况随时调整路径,并用实例验证了方法的正确性和适用性。结果表明,当出行者遇到拥堵路段时,可以在途中改变路径,并且在心理预期时间不能满足时,就会选择有风险的路径。Travelers often dynamically select their routes since their route choice behaviors are influenced by many uncertain factors in practical travel process. We establish a prospect theory based dynamic route choice model from bounded rationality and change on the way in route choice. We further present a dynamic route choice model more applicable to people thinking habit. It allows a traveler to dynamically adjust the route based on road situation. We also verify its correctness and applicability through practical instances. Results show that a traveler can change route on the way when he meets a congested road section. He will choose a risky route if his psychological expected time cannot be satisfied.

关 键 词：前景理论 动态路径选择 路径改变方式 参考点 有限理性 

分 类 号：U239.5[交通运输工程—道路与铁道工程]