基于LSSVM的既有线运用27t轴重货车经济效益分析  

Ananalysis on the Economic Benefit of Using the 27 t Axle-load Truck on Existing Lines based on LSSVM

作　　者：穆鑫 

机构地区：[1]中国铁路总公司运输局,北京100844

出　　处：《铁道货运》2016年第10期28-34,43,共8页Railway Freight Transport

基　　金：中国铁路总公司科技研究开发计划课题(2014J002-B)

摘　　要：发展大轴重货车是世界铁路货运发展的趋势。从线路和桥梁等基础设施改造费用和移动装备购置费用角度,对我国铁路既有线运用27 t轴重货车进行投入产出分析,得出既有线运用27 t轴重货车经济效益明显的结论。基于LSSVM建立铁路货运相关的投入与产出指标的回归模型,给出弹性系数和边际产出价值的计算方法,并利用历史数据对所提出的方法进行验证。结果表明,既有线运用27 t轴重货车在技术上可行,基础设施改造投入合理,经济效益明显。The development of large axle-load truck is the trend of railway freight transportation in the world. This paper analyzes the input and output of 27 t axle-load trucks on the existing railway lines in China by considering the cost of the infrastructure transformation on lines and bridges and the cost of mobile equipment acquisition. It is concluded that the 27 t axle trucks have obvious economic benefits in railway freight transportation. Based on LSSVM, a regression model of railway freight-related capital investment and output value index is established, and the calculation method of elasticity coefficient and marginal output value is given, and the proposed method is validated by using historical data. The results show that it is technically feasible to use the 27 t axle truck on the existing line, with a reasonable investment in the infrastructure transformation and significant economic benefit.

关 键 词：铁路 大轴重货车 经济效益 LSSVM 弹性系数 

分 类 号：F530.5[经济管理—产业经济]