我国证券分析师盈利预测准确度实证研究  

An Empirical Study on the Accuracy of Securities Analysts' Earnings Forecast in China

作　　者：王惠芳[1] 李翠翠[1] WANG Huifang LI Cuicui(School of Accounting, Zhongnan University of Economics and Law, Wuhan 430073, Chin)

机构地区：[1]中南财经政法大学会计学院,湖北武汉430073

出　　处：《南京审计大学学报》2016年第6期51-59,共9页Journal of Nanjing Audit University

基　　金：中央高校基本科研业务费资助项目(31541311107)

摘　　要：以我国2012—2014年非金融类上市公司为研究样本,考察证券分析师对上市公司盈利预测的准确度以及影响准确度的因素,结果表明:我国盈利预测平均准确度不高,盈利预测存在乐观偏误,盈利预测准确度有逐年增强的趋势;分析师热衷于对盈余平稳、预测难度低、运营前景较好的公司进行盈利预测;分析师对上市公司发布的报告数越多,预测准确度越高;公司规模越大、成长速度越快、盈利难度越低,分析师对其盈利预测的准确度越高;杠杆水平越高、历史盈余波动性越大的公司,分析师对其盈利预测的准确度越低,其中杠杆水平、盈利可预测性对分析师准确度的影响较大。Taking the non-financial listed companies in China from 2012 to 2014 as the research sample, this paper makes an investigation on the accuracy of the securities analysts＇ earnings forecasts and the faetors affecting the accuracy on the listed companies. The results show that the average accuracy of analysts＇ earnings forecast is not high in China. Earnings forecasts have an optimistic bias and the accuracy of forecast has an increasing tendency year by year. Analysts are keen on earnings forecasts for companies with stable earnings, low forecast difficulty, and better operating prospects. The more tracking reports, greater size, faster growthrate and stronger earnings predictability will bring higher accuracy of earnings forecast. The higher leverage level and the greater volatility in earnings in the history bring lower accuracy of earnings forecast. We can find that the leverage level and earnings predictability have great impact on the accuracy of the analyst.

关 键 词：证券分析师 分析师盈利预测 信息不对称 盈余波动 羊群行为 股票市场定价效率 分析师关注 

分 类 号：F275[经济管理—企业管理]