基于贝叶斯理论的企业新产品开发风险决策GERT网络模型  

A GERT Network Model about Enterprise New Product Development Risk Decisions Based on Bayesian Theory

作　　者：陈玮[1] 郭本海[1,2] 吕东东[1] 

机构地区：[1]江苏大学管理学院,江苏镇江212013 [2]南京航空航天大学经济与管理学院,江苏南京210016

出　　处：《科技管理研究》2016年第22期208-213,共6页Science and Technology Management Research

基　　金：国家自然基金项目"区域主导产业发展的高能效实现机制问题研究"(71173106);江苏省教育厅高校哲学社会科学研究重点项目"加快推进江苏创新发展的战略设计与突破口选择"(2011ZDIXM057);江苏大学高级技术人才项目"区域战略性新兴产业发展的市场环境培育问题研究"(13JDG124)

摘　　要：构建以企业新产品开发基本过程为基础的GERT网络模型,度量于研发过程实施针对性管控措施前后新产品开发成功概率;结合贝叶斯决策理论建立评估产品收益的数学模型,计算企业购买情报前后新产品的期望收益,测度完全情报价值和购买情报的净收益。研究结果揭示了新产品开发成本、成功率和市场需求量等因素的相互作用,并为企业新产品开发于不同情境和因素下的决策提供依据。The GERT network model is constructed based on the basic process of new product development, and the paper measures the probability of success of new product development before and after the implementation of specific control meas- ures in the development process. A mathematical model is established to evaluate the yield of the product, which is to cal- culate the expected return of the new product, and measure the total information value and the net income of the purchase. The research results reveal the interaction between the new product development cost, success rate and market demand and other factors, and provide the basis for the new product development in different situations and factors.

关 键 词：风险决策 新产品开发 贝叶斯决策理论 GERT网络 

分 类 号：F273.2[经济管理—企业管理]