影视剧项目投资价值的实物期权评估模型  

The Real Options Model of Film and Television Play Projects

作　　者：张辉锋[1] 王田[1] ZHANG Huifeng WANG Tian

机构地区：[1]中国人民大学新闻学院

出　　处：《国际新闻界》2016年第10期128-142,共15页Chinese Journal of Journalism & Communication

基　　金：中国人民大学科学研究基金项目<中国传媒业融资模式效果的实证评估研究>(15XNL030)的阶段性成果~~

摘　　要：影视剧项目投资价值的判断,长期以来依靠的是主观经验或现金流折现法,这加剧了影视剧投资的风险。影视剧项目"阶段化"开发的生产经营特征,为将实物期权定价法引入到影视剧项目的定价中提供了可能。在此基础上,本文创造性地将影视剧项目投资过程转化为一个前后关联的"复合期权";基于影视剧项目资金投入形式、市场化程度和资金回报的发生时间,本文采用了更符合我国影视剧市场发展现状的二叉树解法对期权求解,构建出专属于影视剧项目的实物期权价值评估模型,为影视剧项目价值的准确评估提供了合理的方法。同时,作为一种新引入的定价方法,本模型的应用和修正还有赖于影视剧项目期权市场的建立。The evaluations of film experience or the Discounted and television play projects have always relied on subjective Cash Flow approach, which contributed to the high investment risks. With the staged development of film and television play projects, this research finds that it＇spossible to build a real options model for film and television play projects. This study originally turns the investment of film and television play projects into a compound options, and builds a real options model with a binary tree representation to compute their value for the investors. The authors also believe it＇s essential to build a options market of film and television play projects, to apply or modify the model.

关 键 词：影视剧项目 阶段化开发 实物期权定价 复合期权 价值评估模型 

分 类 号：J943[艺术—电影电视艺术] F224[经济管理—国民经济]