基于微震监测的岩体稳定性预测模型  

Stability Prediction Model of Rock Mass Based on Microseismic Monitoring System

作　　者：江文武[1] 苏振豪 陈祥祥 李凌飞[2] 李家福 JIANG Wenwu SU Zhenhao CHENXiangxiang LI Lingfei LI Jiafu(College of Applied Science, Jiangxi University of Science and Technology, Ganzhou, Jiangxi 341000, China Faculty of Resource and Environmental Engineering, Jiangxi University of Science and Technology, Ganzhou, Jiangxi 341000, China Shanghai Pengxu Information and Technology Co., Ltd, Shanghai 201199, China)

机构地区：[1]江西理工大学应用科学学院,江西赣州市341000 [2]江西理工大学资源与环境工程学院,江西赣州市341000 [3]上海鹏旭信息科技有限公司,上海201199

出　　处：《矿业研究与开发》2016年第11期41-44,共4页Mining Research and Development

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(41462016);江西省教育厅科技项目(GJJ151526)

摘　　要：以江西某钨矿为工程背景,针对岩爆发生破坏性破坏前,其监测数据会突然出现变化这一现象,建立关于岩爆的灰色-突变预测模型。运用灰色建模理论对该矿山328中段313采场相邻的岩爆活动区域内地震能量累计值序列进行处理分析,同时,运用尖点突变模型对拟合序列的突变性进行分析,对岩爆发生的时间位置进行预测,成功预测到一次破坏性岩爆事件,提高了岩爆预测的准确性,说明了灰色-突变预测模型的有效性,具有重要的生产实际意义。The rockburst exists in a tungsten mine of Jiangxi, and its monitoring data would be suddenly changed before destructive damage. According to this phenomenon, the grey --catastrophe prediction model of rockburst was established. The seismic energy cumulative value of adjacent rockburst area in 313 stope at 328 level of mine was analyzed by grey theory. Meanwhile, by cusp catastrophic model, the muta- bility of fitting sequence was analyzed, the time and position of rock burst were predicted with one success, and the accu- racy of rockburst prediction was improved, which proved that the grey-catastrophe prediction model had good effec- tiveness and important practical significance.

关 键 词：岩爆 灰色理论 突变理论 微震监测 

分 类 号：TD325.1[矿业工程—矿井建设]