天然气管网多状态可靠性及天然气市场满意度计算  

Calculation of natural gas pipeline network reliability under multi-state conditions and natural gas market satisfaction

作　　者：艾慕阳[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国石油管道科技研究中心/中国石油天然气集团公司油气储运重点实验室

出　　处：《油气储运》2016年第11期1141-1147,共7页Oil & Gas Storage and Transportation

基　　金：中国石油天然气集团公司科技攻关项目“大型天然气管网可靠性研究方案设计”,2013B-3410

摘　　要：天然气管网系统可靠性影响因素众多,运用极限状态条件下的可靠性计算方法不能满足实际需求,运用不同类型随机变量既可以开展天然气管网多状态条件下系统可靠性概率计算,也可以表示管网运行参数的变化。将管道生产运行参数变换为规范的独立随机变量,进而利用边缘分布函数简化管网可靠性概率计算。综合天然气管网供应能力和天然气市场供需双方经济效益两方面因素,将管道供应可靠度与市场交易财务损失率相结合,形成供需双方满意度的计算方法,为天然气管网运行及市场经营决策提供了量化分析工具。The reliability of natural gas pipeline network system is affected by many factors, so the reliability calculation method under ultimate limit state cannot satisfy actual demand. Random variables of various types can be used to calculate the probability of natural gas pipeline network system reliability under multi-state conditions and reveal the variation of pipeline network operation parameters. The pipeline operation parameters are converted into standard independent random variables so as to simplify the probability calculation process for pipeline network reliability by marginal distribution functions. With comprehensive assessment of the supply capacity of natural gas pipeline network and economic benefit of both buyer and seller in natural gas market, the supply reliability of pipeline is combined with financial risk ratios of market transactions to establish calculation methods of both buyer and seller＇s satisfaction. This newly developed technique may provide natural gas pipeline operation and market decision with quantitative analysis tools.

关 键 词：天然气管网可靠性 多状态可靠性 独立随机变量 边缘分布 供应可靠度 用户需求强度系数 供需双方综合风险率 天然气市场满意度 资源与市场经济风险模型 

分 类 号：TE832[石油与天然气工程—油气储运工程]