经济新常态下云南农村新消费增长点的预测研究  

Prediction of New Consumption Growth Points in the Rural Areas of Yunnan Province under the New-normal Economy

作　　者：李兴奇[1] 安敏[1] 

机构地区：[1]楚雄师范学院经济与管理学院,云南楚雄675000

出　　处：《楚雄师范学院学报》2016年第9期65-72,共8页Journal of Chuxiong Normal University

基　　金：云南省哲学社会科学规划项目;项目编号:QN2015001;云南省教育厅科学研究基金项目;项目编号:2015Y437;楚雄师范学院科学研究基金项目;项目编号:13XJRC09

摘　　要：培育云南农村新的消费增长点有助于为农村新一轮的经济增长寻找出路。本文首先利用扩展线性模型研究云南农村八项消费与人均可支配收入间的关系,并利用ARIMA模型预测未来五年的人均可支配收入;在此基础上预测了云南农村未来八项消费,探寻了云南农村未来新的消费增长点。研究表明:食品、居住、交通通讯、医疗保健消费依然是未来几年云南农村消费的主要支撑点。To develop new consumption growth points in rural Yunnan Province helps the new tide of economic growth in the rural areas in general. By making use of the extended linear model to study the relationship between the eight consumption items and disposable income per capita of Yunnan and the ARI-MA model to predict the disposable income per capita in the following five years, this paper presents the authors＇ prediction of the aforementioned eight consumption items in rural Yunnan to identify Yunnan＇ s new consumption growth points in the future. The research shows that food, housing, communication and medical care will remain the major consumption growth points in rural Yunnan in the next years to come.

关 键 词：经济新常态 扩展线性模型 ARIMA模型 消费增长点 

分 类 号：F124.7[经济管理—世界经济]