基于RAS及I-O的建筑业隐含碳排放趋势及减排责任分担研究  

Tendency for Embodied Carbon Emissions and Its Reduction Responsibility among the Related Industry of Construction Industry on the Basis of RAS and I-O

作　　者：祁神军[1] 田丝女 张云波[1] 温日琨[3] 

机构地区：[1]华侨大学土木工程学院,福建厦门361021 [2]福建世茂置业有限公司,福建厦门361000 [3]浙江农林大学风景园林与建筑学院,浙江杭州311300

出　　处：《生态经济》2016年第12期43-48,共6页Ecological Economy

基　　金：国家自然科学基金青年基金项目"LCA视角下宏观建筑碳排放结构特性;演化机理及区域化减排机制研究"(71303082);教育部人文社会科学规划青年基金项目"不同结构建筑碳排放流模拟及优化--基于工程经济学的视角"(13YJCZH194);福建省软科学项目"福建省建筑行业碳排放核算与减排策略研究"(2014R0015)

摘　　要：基于I-O理论和RAS法,构建了我国建筑业隐含碳排放的核算模型和预测模型;进而预测了2011～2020年建筑业的隐含碳排放;以到2020年我国单位国内生产总值CO_2排放比2005年下降40%～45%为基本目标,分解了建筑业隐含碳排放的减排目标及关联产业的隐含碳排放减排的责任分担,提出了建筑业隐含碳排放降低的对策和措施。研究结果表明：2015～2020年各产业部门将释放10 537 913万吨的CO_2,其中的2 664 547万吨是建筑业产生的隐含碳排放,占总排放量的25.29%;建筑业98%的隐含碳排放减排责任归属关联产业,其中石油、炼焦、煤气及精制品加工业的隐含碳排放降低的责任之比达到了25.89%,其次是交通运输、仓储和邮政业,占总责任的15.87%,而电力、热力的生产和供应业的贡献位居第三,达到了12.25%。The calculation model and predictive model of embodied carbon emissions of construction industry were built on the basis of input-output theory （I-O） and row arrange series （RAS） method. The embodied carbon emissions of construction industry were forecasted from 2011 to 2020. On the premise of that the carbon emission per GDP will be reduced by 40%- 45% in 2020 compared with 2005, the target of the embodied carbon emissions of construction industry was simulated the reduction amount and reduction responsibility of embodied carbon emissions were decomposed for the related industries. Finally, the reduction counter measures have been proposed.The research results shown that： The total of embodied carbon emissions from 2615 to 2020 will be 105 379.13 million tons, and that of construction industry will be 26 645.47 million tons, which accounted for 25.29%; and 98% of reduction responsibility for the embodied carbon emissions of construction industry will be from the related industries,such as the industry of oil, coke, gas and refined products processing, its reduction responsibility rate reached 25.56%, and the industry of transport, storage and postal services, its reduction responsibility reached 14.64%, and the reduction responsibility of the industry of contribution of electricity, heat production and supply was third, which reached to 13.48%.

关 键 词：建筑业 隐含碳排放 投入产出 RAS法 关联产业 减排责任 

分 类 号：X196[环境科学与工程—环境科学]