海陆复合型地缘政治大国崛起的“威廉困境”与战略选择  

Land-Sea Power Geo-politics,Rising Great States,the Prisoner's Dilemma and Strategic Choice

作　　者：姜鹏[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]哈尔滨工程大学形势与政策研究中心 [2]外交学院国际关系研究所

出　　处：《当代亚太》2016年第5期66-86,共21页Journal of Contemporary Asia-Pacific Studies

基　　金：教育部哲学社会科学重大课题攻关项目"中国特色大国外交研究"(项目编号:15JZDH032);中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助项目"国家安全与国防建设智库立项"(项目编号:HEUCFZ1614)的阶段性成果

摘　　要：在研究新兴大国关系的议程中,关于崛起国与守成国如何规避"修昔底德陷阱"的探讨很多,但是关于"威廉困境"是如何诱发"修昔底德陷阱"的研究却很少。文章通过将地缘政治学与大国崛起战略进行交叉研究发现:海陆复合型地缘政治崛起大国追求区域海权存在着时间上的"先动劣势"和空间上的"重点区域劣势"两大特征,即率先追求区域海权或在霸权国利益核心区域追求海权的崛起国最容易被视为挑战者;而掌握"后动优势"和"次要区域"的崛起国则有机会通过推责战略而成为霸权国绥靖与鼓励的结盟对象。在亚太地区中美二元结构日益明晰的背景下,中国追求区域海权缺乏一个有效的推责对象。一旦中国陷入区域陆权与区域海权并举战略诱发的"威廉困境"之中,就可能加深中美之间的战略互疑,并成为日本与印度谋求区域海权的推责对象。This article explores the nexus of geo-politics and rising power strategy,finding that when it comes to land-sea power,should a rising state seeking regional maritime power face a first-mover disadvantage when it comes to timing and a major regional disadvantage when it comes to space,then its attempts to establish regional maritime power or maritime power in a region constituting a core national interest to the hegemonic power will be perceived as a challenge.On the other hand,a rising state that enjoys a late-mover advantage in a 'secondary region'has the opportunity to identify a 'scapegoat',and it can then appease the hegemonic power and thereby become a target with which the hegemon may desire an alliance.In the Asia Pacific Region,structural divisions between the US and China are increasingly apparent,with China lacking a target towards which it can effectively project responsibility as it seeks regional maritime power.If China were to become entangled in a prisoner's dilemma resulting from a parallel regional land power-sea power strategy,it could well deepen strategic mistrust between the US and China,and become a scape goat vis-à-vis Japanese or Indian efforts to secure maritime power.

关 键 词：“威廉困境” “修昔底德陷阱” 区域海权 区域陆权 中国崛起 

分 类 号：D815[政治法律—国际关系]