基于灰关联模型的台风灾损研究及服务平台开发  

The Research on Typhoon Disaster Loss based on the Grey Relational Model and the Development of its Service Platform

作　　者：匡亮[1] 季云峰[1] 平震宇[1] 

机构地区：[1]江苏信息职业技术学院物联网工程学院,江苏无锡214000

出　　处：《绵阳师范学院学报》2016年第11期59-65,共7页Journal of Mianyang Teachers＇ College

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(60974016);江苏省自然科学基金项目(BK20131097);江苏高校品牌专业建设工程"物联网应用技术"(PPZY2015239);2016年江苏省大学生创新创业训练计划(201613108002Y)

摘　　要：本文采用灰关联的方法建立台风灾害灾情指数的评估模型,选择台风路径预报误差等16项影响因子作为模型的输入指标,利用模糊数学和灰关联的方法获得致灾能力、受灾体暴露度和受灾体御灾能力指数,从而确定台风综合影响指数的回归方程.通过建立直接经济损失等典型灾情损失因子的最优幂数回归模型,实现浙江台风灾害的损失评估.最后,开发基于灾损评估模型的Web GIS台风灾害服务平台,系统经过测试,可以稳定良好的运行.同时,使用本系统,可以为台风的防灾减灾提供建议和支持.The research on the typhoon~ disaster has been developing rapidly. The evaluation model of typhoon disaster index was established on the basis of gray relational method, choosing 16 effective factors as input indexes of the model. We establishedacomprehensive influence index regression model from three indexes of causing disas- ter ability, exposure degree and resistance ability by the fuzzy mathematical and the gray relational method. Then the power function regression model was obtained with disaster loss factors to realize the evaluation of typhoon dis- asters. The typhoon disaster service system is developed with the model of damage assessment based on WebGIS. The system testing results indicated that the system works well. The research can be widely used to provide advice and suooort to tvohoon disaster prevention and mitigation.

关 键 词：台风灾害 综合影响指数 灰关联 模糊数学 灾害服务平台 

分 类 号：TP399[自动化与计算机技术—计算机应用技术]