考虑种群数量变化的煤矿安全监察演化模型  

Evolutionary model for coal mine safety supervision considering change in population quantity

作　　者：黄定轩[1,2] 吴永娇[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]桂林理工大学现代企业管理研究中心,广西桂林541004 [2]桂林理工大学管理学院,广西桂林541004

出　　处：《中国安全科学学报》2016年第10期145-150,共6页China Safety Science Journal

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助(71662008;71562008);广西高校人文社会科学重点研究基地基金资助(15YB001;16YB005);2014年度广西高校科学技术重点研究项目(ZD2014058)

摘　　要：为准确阐述中国煤矿安全监察机构变化对中国煤矿安全生产结果的影响,结合演化博弈缺乏种群数量变化的不足,建立基于弱肉强食模型的煤矿安全监察演化模型。同时引入系统动力学(SD),分析不同主体行为共生演化的稳定点及其稳定性条件,探究不同参数对系统稳定点的影响;然后,对煤矿安全监察弱肉强食模型的共生演化过程进行仿真分析。研究结果表明:弱肉强食模型中不同主体行为之间共生演化的稳定点取决于违规生产行为对监察行为的供养能力;不同参数对系统稳定点的影响存在差异。研究结论可以有效解释中国煤矿安全监察机构变化后煤矿死亡事故的变化特征。To accurately uncover the influency of change to coal mine safety supervision institutions change in China on coal mine work safety,aiming at solving the absence of population change in evolutionary models, an evolutionary model of coal mine work safety supervision was built according to law of the jungle model. Based on proposed evolutionary model, system dynamic was introduced to investigate the stability conditions of the symbiotic evolution among different behavior subjects and the system stable points change with parameters＇ changes. Then, the symbiotic evolutionary process of the jungle law model in the coal mine safety supervision was simulated. The results show that the symbiotic evolutionary stable points in law of the jungle model depend on the support ability of the supervisory action coming from the illegal production behaviors, and that the influence of different parameters on the system stable point varies. Conclusions can effectively explain the variation characteristics of coal mine safety death accidents occurring since change to coal mine safety supervision institutions change in China.

关 键 词：煤矿安全监察 种群 弱肉强食模型 共生演化 系统动力学(SD) 

分 类 号：X923[环境科学与工程—安全科学] F270[经济管理—企业管理]