基于灰色理论的延边地区畜禽养殖环境承载力研究  

Research of the Livestock and Poultry Breeding Environment Bearing Capacity in Yanbian Area based on Gray Theory

作　　者：王延吉[1] 金爱芬[2] 赵春子[2] 金明姬[1] WANG Yan-ji JIN Ai-fen ZHAO Chun-zi JIN Ming-ji(Agricuhural College of Yanbian University, Yanji Jilin 133002, China Science College of Yanbian University, Yanji Jilin 133002, China)

机构地区：[1]延边大学农学院,吉林延吉133002 [2]延边大学理学院,吉林延吉133002

出　　处：《中国畜牧杂志》2016年第20期24-28,共5页Chinese Journal of Animal Science

基　　金：吉林省教育厅"十二五"科学技术研究项目(吉教科合字[2015]第39号)

摘　　要：本文结合2008—2014年延边地区畜禽养殖发展现状,构建了延边地区畜禽养殖环境承载力评价指标体系,并采用系统分析模型对分析年份延边地区畜禽养殖环境承载力综合值进行了量化;同时运用灰色数列预测模型对延边地区2015—2025年畜禽养殖环境承载力进行了预测。结果表明,延边地区畜禽养殖环境承载力适宜值与警戒值分别为0.241和0.234;2008—2014年畜禽养殖环境承载力综合值均大于适宜值,且逐渐偏离适宜值,延边地区畜禽养殖环境承载能力较强。而2015—2025年间畜禽养殖环境承载力综合值也均大于适宜值,发展前景乐观,可进行持续性发展。Through investigating and analyzing the development present situation of livestock and poultry breeding environment in Yanbian area from 2008 to 2014 to set up a index system of livestock and poultry breeding environment bearing capacity.The system analysis model was used to quantify the livestock and poultry breeding environment bearing capacity of Yanbian area.At the same time,the gray sequence forecast model was used to predict the livestock and poultry breeding environment bearing capacity of Yanbian area in next 11 years（from 2015 to 2025）.The results showed that the suitable value and warning value of livestock and poultry breeding environment in Yanbian area was 0.241,0.234,separately.The comprehensive values of livestock and poultry breeding environment bearing capacity from 2008 to 2014 were greater than the warning value and deviated from the suitable value,The livestock and poultry breeding environment bearing capacity in Yianbian area is stronger.In the next 11 years（from 2015 to2025）,the comprehensive values of livestock and poultry breeding environment bearing capacity were greater than the suitable value which means the development prospect of livestock and poultry breeding would be optimistic and sustainable in the next few years in Yanbian area.

关 键 词：畜禽养殖 环境承载力 系统分析模型 灰色数列预测模型 

分 类 号：X26[环境科学与工程—环境科学] S815[农业科学—畜牧学]