安徽省工业化石能源消费碳排放研究  

Research of CO_2 Emission from Fossil Energy Consumption of Industry in Anhui Province

作　　者：周洪源[1] 汪家权[1] 胡淑恒[1] 赵子清[1] 

机构地区：[1]合肥工业大学资源与环境工程学院,合肥230009

出　　处：《工业安全与环保》2016年第11期94-97,共4页Industrial Safety and Environmental Protection

基　　金：中国清洁发展机制基金赠款项目(1213054);安徽省发改委项目(J2014AHST0013)

摘　　要：按不同化石能源品种的消费量估算安徽省2004—2014年CO2排放量,分析该省工业行业能源消费量及化石能源消费碳排放量的变化规律。在此基础上,采用等维灰数递补动态GM(1,1)预测模型预测3种发展情景下2030年安徽省工业化石能源消费碳排放量。结果表明:安徽省工业化石能源消费CO2排放量由2004年的1.64亿t上升到2014年的4.25亿t;到2030年,在基准情景、低碳情景和强化低碳情景下将分别达到7.51亿t、6.06亿t和4.91亿t。According to the consumption of different varieties of fossil energy,annual emission of CO2 in Anhui Province from 2004 to 2014 is calculated. Moreover,the change rules of energy consumption and CO2 emission from fossil energy consumption of industry are analyzed. Finally,CO2 emissions from fossil energy consumption until 2030 of industry in Anhui Province under three development scenarios are forecasted by using same dimensions additional grey dynamic prediction method GM（ 1. 1）. Results show that CO2 emissions from fossil energy consumption of industry in Anhui Province had increased to 425 million tons in 2014 from 164 million tons in 2004. In 2030,it will be 751 million tons,606 million tons and 491 million tons under the benchmark scenario,the low- carbon scenario and the enhanced low- carbon scenario respectively.

关 键 词：碳排放 能源消费 预测 安徽省 

分 类 号：F426.2[经济管理—产业经济] X24[环境科学与工程—环境科学]